Yen, iki raporlanan m\u00fcdahalenin ard\u0131ndan temmuzun son haftas\u0131ndan bu yana dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %5 y\u00fckseldi; toplam maliyetin muhtemelen 100 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu toparlanma, JPYUSD\u2019nin son be\u015f y\u0131lda %41 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi bir resmin \u00fczerine geliyor ve geriye kalan politika arac\u0131 olarak yurt i\u00e7i faiz oranlar\u0131nda daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f i\u015faret ediliyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ politika kurulu \u00fcyesi Hajime Takata, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tempoda ilerlemesini g\u00fcndeme getirdi ve politika faizinde arka arkaya ad\u0131mlar ihtimalini dile getirdi. Japonya\u2019da faizlerde daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir normalle\u015fme, y\u0131lda 250 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde likidite sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen yen carry trade\u2019ini zorlayabilir ve \u201crisk-off\u201d ortam\u0131nda devlet tahvillerine ve ABD dolar\u0131na talep e\u015fli\u011finde sert kur hareketlerini tetikleyebilir. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Hazine geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 ilgili tarihte beklenen 4 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131ksa bile, 40 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ABD Hazine piyasas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek \u015firket tahvil ihrac\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131; bu durumun da getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Yen\u2019in dalgal\u0131 seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle birlikte t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. BoJ\u2019un son m\u00fcdahalelerinin tahmini maliyeti 100 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, Yen\u2019in dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %5\u2019lik toparlanmas\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fimin yaln\u0131zca ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. BoJ\u2019un arka arkaya faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kap\u0131 aralamas\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n devasa JPY carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ani \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, yen carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k h\u0131zla y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde; t\u0131pk\u0131 A\u011fustos 2024\u2019teki piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda %16\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan s\u0131\u00e7ramaya benzer \u015fekilde. Mevcut durumda carry trade, k\u00fcresel piyasalara y\u0131ll\u0131k 250 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde likidite enjekte ediyor; bu da olas\u0131 ani faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u201cmargin squeeze\u201di tetikleyebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir Yen de\u011ferlenmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine tahvili piyasas\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; olas\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenli liman talebi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 devlet tahvillerine y\u00f6nlendirerek dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n likiditeyi desteklemeyi hedefleyen geri al\u0131m programlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yen k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 panikle satmas\u0131 halinde bu \u00e7abalar getirileri bask\u0131lamada yetersiz kalabilir. Olas\u0131 bir likidite tuza\u011f\u0131na yakalanmamak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131nda ve uzun vadeli Hazine vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin temkinli tutulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen, m\u00fcdahalelerle %5 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken maliyet 100 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131yor: S\u0131rada \u015fok var m\u0131? BoJ\u2019un h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali carry trade\u2019i \u00e7\u00f6zebilir, volatiliteyi t\u0131rmand\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t