ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) verileri, 28 A\u011fustos ile biten haftada do\u011fal gaz depolama de\u011fi\u015fiminin 30 milyar fit k\u00fcp (Bcf) oldu\u011funu ve piyasa beklentisi olan 31 Bcf\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. 1 Bcf\u2019lik fark, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde depolara net enjeksiyonun tahmin edilene k\u0131yasla marjinal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha s\u0131k\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Veri seti, stoklar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f kaydedildi\u011fini ortaya koydu; a\u00e7\u0131klanan 30 Bcf\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015f, 31 Bcf\u2019lik konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Rakamlar, haftal\u0131k enjeksiyon-\u00e7eki\u015f dengesini yans\u0131t\u0131r ve ABD do\u011fal gaz piyasas\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli arz-talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge olarak izlenir.<\/p>\n
Burada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira 1 milyar fit k\u00fcpl\u00fck \u201ck\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck\u201d enjeksiyon, y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar fit k\u00fcp seviyesindeki 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in Ekim ve Kas\u0131m vadeli Henry Hub do\u011fal gaz kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 derhal de\u011ferlendirmeli. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar\u0131n kritik \u00fcst diren\u00e7 seviyelerini test etmesini bekliyoruz. <\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalarken riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in k\u0131\u015f vadeli kontratlar \u00fczerinde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, yaz sonu enjeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde k\u0131\u015f risk primlerinin h\u0131zla geni\u015fledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ma edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; bu da uzun opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadlerini (bull call spreads) \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6zellikle Ekim kontrat\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p Aral\u0131k kontrat\u0131n\u0131 satarak bo\u011fa takvim spreadlerine (bull calendar spread) girilmesini; yak\u0131n vadedeki arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Alttaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n temel s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicileri, A\u011fustos sonundaki s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n rekor seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 elektrik \u00fcretim kaynakl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (power burn) ile g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 milyar fit k\u00fcp d\u00fczeyinde seyreden istikrarl\u0131 LNG ihracat talebi. Bu arz-talep uyumsuzlu\u011fu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi halinde sert bir \u201cshort squeeze\u201di tetikleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz EIA verisi: ABD do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131na 30 Bcf enjeksiyon, 31 Bcf beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasa s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor; Henry Hub Ekim-Kas\u0131m al\u0131mlar\u0131, k\u0131\u015f OTM call\u2019lar\u0131 ve Ekim\/Aral\u0131k bo\u011fa takvim spreadleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t