{"id":53603,"date":"2026-09-03T19:26:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T19:26:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-getiri-farklarinin-daralmasiyla-30-milyar-dolarlik-hacimde-200-gunluk-ortalamayi-kirdi-bojun-sikilastirmasi-radarinda\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T19:26:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T19:26:09","slug":"usd-jpy-getiri-farklarinin-daralmasiyla-30-milyar-dolarlik-hacimde-200-gunluk-ortalamayi-kirdi-bojun-sikilastirmasi-radarinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-getiri-farklarinin-daralmasiyla-30-milyar-dolarlik-hacimde-200-gunluk-ortalamayi-kirdi-bojun-sikilastirmasi-radarinda\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Getiri Farklar\u0131n\u0131n Daralmas\u0131yla 30 Milyar Dolarl\u0131k Hacimde 200 G\u00fcnl\u00fck Ortalamay\u0131 K\u0131rd\u0131; BoJ\u2019un S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 Radar\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, 160,70\/161 band\u0131n\u0131 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 (50-DMA) a\u015fmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (200-DMA) alt\u0131na sarkarken y\u00fcksek i\u015flem hacmi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; odak, 155 civar\u0131ndaki \u201cboyun \u00e7izgisi\u201d (neckline) etraf\u0131ndaki deste\u011fe kayd\u0131. Hareket s\u0131ras\u0131nda toplam i\u015flemlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyar dolar oldu\u011fu tahmin edilirken, Asya seans\u0131ndaki devam sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 pariteyi psikolojik bir seviyenin daha alt\u0131na itti ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 hesaplar\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmaya zorlad\u0131. Fiyat hareketi, 100-DMA \u00fczerinden 200-DMA alt\u0131na uzanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle de ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi; olas\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finde 160,70\/161 civar\u0131ndaki hareketli ortalama b\u00f6lgesi yeniden odakta kalacak.<\/p>\n

Zemin taraf\u0131nda, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma temposunu art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ve mali y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru tahvil kaynakl\u0131 repatriasyon ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanabilece\u011fi beklentileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Faiz farklar\u0131 belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor: 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine (UST) \/ Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) getirisi fark\u0131 9 baz puan daralarak 250 baz puana indi, ard\u0131ndan gece saatlerinde ivme zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD taraf\u0131ndaki makro kataliz\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) anlat\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; ADP sonras\u0131 40 bin seviyelerine dair \u201cf\u0131s\u0131lt\u0131lar\u201d ve gelecek haftaki T\u00dcFE verisi izleniyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, BoJ\u2019un 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dair s\u00f6ylem yumu\u015fat\u0131ld\u0131; bu da g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 156,36 dip seviyesinden 157\u2019ye do\u011fru bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 (short squeeze) destekledi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flemciler \u0130\u00e7in G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak veya vadeli i\u015flemlerde k\u0131sa pozisyon kurarak kal\u0131c\u0131 bir Japon Yeni rallisine haz\u0131rlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek i\u015flem hacmiyle kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131rd\u0131 ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 fonlar\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla kapatmaya zorlad\u0131. Parite 155 civar\u0131ndaki psikolojik boyun \u00e7izgisi deste\u011finin alt\u0131na k\u0131rarsa, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin h\u0131zla ivmelenmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, tahvil getirisi farklar\u0131ndaki daralma ile destekleniyor: 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili ile Japon devlet tahvili aras\u0131ndaki fark yak\u0131n zamanda 9 baz puan daralarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 250 baz puana geriledi. Tarihsel olarak, benzer getiri s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 BoJ\u2019un istikrarl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde, Yeni\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 toparlanmalar\u0131 tetikledi. \u0130\u015flemciler, yar\u0131nki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ve gelecek haftaki enflasyon verileri dahil yakla\u015fan ABD makro verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeli; zay\u0131f ABD verileri bu i\u015flem fikri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Risk Y\u00f6netimi ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n

Riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa USD\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131nda 160,70\u2013161 seviyelerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, Japon \u015firketlerinin mali d\u00f6nem \u00f6ncesinde tarihsel olarak yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sermayelerini \u00fclkeye geri getirmeleri nedeniyle Yeni talebini d\u00fczenli \u015fekilde art\u0131ran mevsimsel repatriasyon ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 da hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z. Ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bear put spread) gibi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejileri kullanarak, prim riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda maj\u00f6r bir yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret eden bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden faydalanabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY\u2019de alarm: 30 milyar $ hacimle 200-DMA alt\u0131na sarkma sonras\u0131 g\u00f6zler 155 \u201cneckline\u201d deste\u011finde. Getiri fark\u0131 daral\u0131yor, BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi art\u0131yor; put\/short stratejisi, stop 161.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t