{"id":53599,"date":"2026-09-03T16:26:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T16:26:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/waller-tufenin-sogumasi-halinde-eylulde-faize-ara-verilebilecegi-sinyalini-verdi-piyasalar-oynakliga-hazirlanirken-dolar-endeksi-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T16:26:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T16:26:21","slug":"waller-tufenin-sogumasi-halinde-eylulde-faize-ara-verilebilecegi-sinyalini-verdi-piyasalar-oynakliga-hazirlanirken-dolar-endeksi-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/waller-tufenin-sogumasi-halinde-eylulde-faize-ara-verilebilecegi-sinyalini-verdi-piyasalar-oynakliga-hazirlanirken-dolar-endeksi-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Waller, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin so\u011fumas\u0131 halinde Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faize ara verilebilece\u011fi sinyalini verdi; piyasalar oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken Dolar Endeksi geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal Reserve Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, Washington\u2019daki Reuters NEXT Newsmaker etkinli\u011finde, A\u011fustos T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE) enflasyonun so\u011fumaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi halinde Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini sabit tutma e\u011filiminde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Verilerin \u201cs\u0131cak\u201d gelmesi durumunda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na da kap\u0131y\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakan Waller, politikay\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon dinamiklerine s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi. Piyasa i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar Endeksi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,00 seviyesine geriledi.<\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc taraf g\u00f6stergeler, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu yans\u0131tmaya devam ederken mesaj\u0131n biraz daha az \u015fahin oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. FXS Speechtracker, Waller\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 6,1 ile tarihsel 6,3 ortalaman\u0131n hafif alt\u0131nda skorlad\u0131; FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi ise 2,06 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 125,38\u2019e indi ve n\u00f6tr 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Waller, enflasyonun Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine at\u0131f yaparak ilerlemenin tersine d\u00f6nmesi halinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir politika faizi ayarlamas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini, hisse fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n t\u00fcketime destek vermesini ve askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, ticaret politikas\u0131 ile yapay zek\u00e2ya ba\u011fl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi dile getirdi. Beklenen revizyonlar\u0131n 12 ayl\u0131k PCE enflasyonunu birka\u00e7 onda puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini de ekledi.<\/p>\n

CPI Release\u2019a Ba\u011fl\u0131 Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

Piyasa kritik A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE verisini beklerken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftada artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Para politikas\u0131 yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, bu spesifik veri noktas\u0131n\u0131n 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki toplant\u0131da politika faizinin sabit tutulup tutulmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 olu\u015fup olu\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyece\u011fini net bi\u00e7imde ortaya koydu. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131 ve Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki ani ve sert dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlara odaklanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u015eu anda federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cpas\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak s\u0131cak bir T\u00dcFE, bu beklentileri an\u0131nda bozarak h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131labilir. Tarihsel olarak, beklenmedik enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerde sert hareketleri tetikledi; \u00f6nceki enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131nda 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani 20-30 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalara benzer. Bu ikili (binary) sonuca pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla EUR\/USD veya USD\/JPY gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde uzun straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Fed Toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00d6ncesi \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi son d\u00f6nemde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131p 99,00 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu da piyasan\u0131n enflasyonda so\u011fumay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak temel ekonomik sinyallerin karma kalmas\u0131 ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 sa\u011flam olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, T\u00dcFE\u2019deki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin tersine d\u00f6nmesi dolar taraf\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir short-squeeze\u2019i tetikleyebilir. Bu a\u015famada dolar \u00fczerinde out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, enflasyon verisinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde, Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k kontratlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki spread\u2019leri yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. A\u011fustos verisi enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten so\u011fudu\u011funu teyit ederse, piyasa sonbahar i\u00e7in istikrarl\u0131 faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken bu spread\u2019lerin daralmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair her i\u015faret, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden masaya koyar; getiriler y\u00fckselirken Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019in Waller\u2019\u0131 \u201cA\u011fustos T\u00dcFE so\u011fursa pas, s\u0131caksa art\u0131\u015f\u201d dedi: Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131 veriye kilit. DXY 99,00\u2019a indi. Oynakl\u0131k art\u0131yor; straddle, dolar call, spread ve tahvil short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t