Meksika\u2019n\u0131n t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi A\u011fustos\u2019ta Temmuz\u2019daki 45 seviyesinden 46,1\u2019e y\u00fckselerek hanehalk\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etti. Art\u0131\u015f, endeksi pozitif b\u00f6lgede tutarken, bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla mevcut ko\u015fullara ili\u015fkin alg\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos verisi, man\u015fet g\u00f6stergedeki kademeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etse de, bunun faaliyet de\u011fil duyarl\u0131l\u0131k anl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni; harcama niyetleri ve ki\u015fisel finans alg\u0131lar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle yak\u0131n vadeli t\u00fcketim e\u011filimlerine dair ipucu vermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Meksika\u2019da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin A\u011fustos\u2019ta beklenti olan 45\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 46,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, yerel hanehalk\u0131 talebinin olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen iyimserli\u011fin, Banco de M\u00e9xico\u2019nun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131larda faizleri agresif bi\u00e7imde indirme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Meksika Pesosu\u2019nu (MXN) yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekir; tarihsel olarak i\u00e7 talep g\u00f6stergeleri beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda peso de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Bu ivmeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta vadeli k\u0131sa USD\/MXN pozisyonlar\u0131 veya MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Halihaz\u0131rda peso dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 19,50 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, bu ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lenme kurun y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 18,80 gibi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelere geri \u00e7ekilmesine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir. Pesonun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 dinamiklerle istikrar kazanmas\u0131 halinde, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasadan uzak (out-of-the-money) USD\/MXN al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak da zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (theta) prim elde etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda da, \u00f6zellikle iShares MSCI Mexico ETF\u2019i (EWW) \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin perakende harcamalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 Meksika hisselerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olumlu ayr\u0131\u015fma potansiyeli bulunuyor. Tarihsel veriler, Meksika\u2019da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni kritik 45 puan e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fclkenin ana hisse endeksinin takip eden ayda s\u0131kl\u0131kla %3 ila %5 aras\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Meksika t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni A\u011fustos\u2019ta 46,1\u2019e y\u00fckselerek beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131: i\u00e7 talep diren\u00e7li. Bu, Banxico\u2019nun agresif faiz indirimini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir; peso g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. USD\/MXN k\u0131sa, MXN call, EWW call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t