Alt\u0131n, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.300 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkarak yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin gerilemesiyle XAU\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.488 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %2,30 y\u00fckseldi. Hareket, 29 A\u011fustos\u2019ta sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 206 bin ile 205 binlik beklentinin \u00fczerinde, \u00f6nceki 204 bin seviyesine k\u0131yasla da art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,00 civar\u0131nda, bir haftan\u0131n dip seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 99,86\u2019y\u0131 test ederek 14 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi, Ekim 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %4,81\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra ikinci g\u00fcnde de gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,74\u2019e indi. Piyasalar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkilerini de fiyatlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc A\u011fustos ISM Hizmet PMI verisi ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fcndemin oda\u011f\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Grafik taraf\u0131nda XAU\/USD, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 55 seviyesinde, MACD ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrediyor. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.500, 4.533 ve 4.700 dolar; destek noktalar\u0131 ise 4.400, 4.357, 4.231 ve 4.000 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda temkinli ve bant (range) i\u00e7i bir strateji benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda %60 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle makro oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131. Bu ortamdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, alt\u0131n 4.500 dolar gibi kritik bir seviye yak\u0131n\u0131nda konsolide olurken prim toplamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli demir kondor (iron condor) stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 4.357 dolar seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban deste\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; yak\u0131n vadeli ilk diren\u00e7 ise 4.500 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin %4,81\u2019deki son zirvesine do\u011fru yeniden sert y\u00fckselmesi, alt\u0131n\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na itebilir. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya a\u00e7\u0131k uzun vadeli (long) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss seviyeleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Japon Yeni\u2019nin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc de izlemek gerekiyor; Yen\u2019deki son ralli, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 99,00 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekti. Tarihsel olarak, dolar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde zay\u0131flamas\u0131, y\u00fcksek faiz ortamlar\u0131nda dahi de\u011ferli metaller i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru (tailwind) olu\u015fturur. Eyl\u00fcl sonuna vadeli bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull-call spreads) uygulamak, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski de s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, tahvil faizi geriledi, XAU\/USD 4.488 dolara %2,3 y\u00fckseldi. G\u00f6zler ISM ve NFP\u2019de; Fed\u2019de %60 art\u0131\u015f. 4.500 kritik, opsiyonda bant, iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t