USD\/JPY, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 yeni m\u00fcdahalesine y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131ran h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa saatlerinde 156,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fc de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Parite \u00e7ar\u015famba \u00f6\u011fleden sonra birka\u00e7 dakika i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 geriledi ve ard\u0131ndan gece boyunca yeniden d\u00fc\u015ferek, Yen\u2019i desteklemeye y\u00f6nelik resmi ad\u0131m riskini g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n\n
Yen, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Hajime Takata\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n politika beklentilerinde yeniden fiyatlamaya yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Takata, 2026\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla ili\u015fkili yap\u0131sal bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fimi getirece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k ritmin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek standart 0,25 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda se\u00e7enekleri de de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini savundu. Dolar da, ADP verilerinin ABD \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n a\u011fustosta 38 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (47 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda) g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak Rabobank, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, \u00c7in\u2019in neo-merkantilist modelini and\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi uygulamalar\u0131 benimsedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 156,80 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi mevcut ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda parite \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ\u2019dan gelen \u015fahin mesajlar ile zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verilerinin birle\u015fimi, yen rallisinin devam edecek alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Kurda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ani %1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Japon otoritelerinin olas\u0131 piyasa m\u00fcdahalesine i\u015faret ediyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2024\u2019te benzer kur dalgalanmalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 9,8 trilyon yen (62 milyar $) tutar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahaleyi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr ani m\u00fcdahaleler \u00f6rt\u00fck volatiliteyi s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, uzun straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Bu strateji, her iki y\u00f6nde de keskin ve ani hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n
ABD dolar\u0131na ili\u015fkin negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla destekleniyor; a\u011fustosa ait ADP raporu yaln\u0131zca 38 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Tarihsel olarak zay\u0131f istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Fed \u00fczerinde faiz indirimine y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; bu da ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz\/getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131r. Bu getiri fark\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n, yen carry trade\u2019inin daha fazla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetiklemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
BoJ\u2019un daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geleneksel olmayan faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na do\u011fru bir kaymaya i\u015faret etmesiyle, orta vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen senaryosuna haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fime y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131rken riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in uzun vadeli bear put spread stratejilerini kullanabilir. Bu kurgu prim maliyetimizi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, para politikalar\u0131 yak\u0131nsamaya devam ettik\u00e7e istikrarl\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar tetikte: USD\/JPY 156,80\u2019e gerilerken m\u00fcdahale spek\u00fclasyonu alevlendi. BoJ\u2019dan \u015fahin sinyal, zay\u0131f ADP ile dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Strateji: k\u0131sa vadeli put, volatilite i\u00e7in straddle, orta vadede bear put spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50188,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t