Rupi per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; USD\/INR paritesi 94,28 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) Yabanc\u0131 Para Non-Resident (FCNR)(B) mevduat penceresi \u00fczerinden gelen giri\u015flerin d\u00f6viz rezervlerini desteklemesiyle ralli devam etti. Reuters, RBI kaynaklar\u0131na dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zel d\u00f6viz mobilizasyon programlar\u0131 yoluyla 136,38 milyar dolar \u00e7ekti\u011fini aktard\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131, son aylarda tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yumu\u015fatmak i\u00e7in spot ve Teslimats\u0131z Vadeli (NDF) piyasalar\u0131nda da aktif olmu\u015ftu. ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flama da parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ADP\u2019nin a\u011fustosta \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde 38 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bildirerek 47 binlik beklentinin ve \u00f6nceki 46 binin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 99,28 seviyesine geriledi. Veri, Fed\u2019in politika beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olan ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesinde geldi. Hindistan\u2019da makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de de\u011fi\u015fti: 2\u00c726 reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %7,8 ile RBI tahmininin 80 baz puan \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, reel GVA %8,2 oldu; hizmetler %10,0, imalat %9,2 ve br\u00fct sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu %11,9 artt\u0131, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim ise %7,1 y\u00fckseldi. FY27 b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00f6nlendirmesi %6,7. Grafiklerde USD\/INR 94,48 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcHO\u2019nun (EMA) 95,32 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 27,96 olurken destek 94,16 yak\u0131n\u0131nda olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/INR paritesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131; 94,16 civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyesini hedeflemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin tarihi y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyretmesi\u2014merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zel mevduat programlar\u0131ndan sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 devasa 136,38 milyar dolarl\u0131k giri\u015fle desteklenmesi\u2014politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara rupi\u2019de ani bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir manevra alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle USD\/INR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak tercih etti\u011fimiz strateji olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 27,96 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli teknik bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi riskine i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir d\u00fczeltme rallisine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA) 95,32 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes emirleri koymas\u0131 gerekir. Ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri gibi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in en yak\u0131n kataliz\u00f6r, \u00f6zellikle \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n a\u011fustosta c\u0131l\u0131z 38 bin artmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, yakla\u015fan ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi olacak. Tarihsel olarak ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda bu denli belirgin bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) mevcut 99,28\u2019e do\u011fru kay\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi kritik psikolojik seviyelerin alt\u0131na sarkma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. NFP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z beklenen sert oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7inde ise Hindistan\u2019\u0131n %7,8\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nan bir zeminde daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla absorbe etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, RBI\u2019nin erken faiz indirimi ihtimalini azaltarak rupi\u2019nin getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu temel g\u00fcc\u00fc uzun-INR takvim spread\u2019lerine girerek de\u011ferlendirebilir; Hindistan\u2019\u0131n daha iyi makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle uyumlu kal\u0131rken prim erimesinden (time decay) getiri elde edebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi, RBI\u2019nin FCNR(B) kanal\u0131yla \u00e7ekti\u011fi 136,38 milyar dolar ve zay\u0131flayan DXY deste\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. USD\/INR 94,28\u2019e yak\u0131n; strateji: k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynay\u0131n, 94,16 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t