{"id":53584,"date":"2026-09-03T07:26:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T07:26:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/faiz-artisi-olasiligi-ve-orta-dogu-gerilimi-talebi-sekillendirirken-altin-4-450-dolarin-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T07:26:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T07:26:21","slug":"faiz-artisi-olasiligi-ve-orta-dogu-gerilimi-talebi-sekillendirirken-altin-4-450-dolarin-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/faiz-artisi-olasiligi-ve-orta-dogu-gerilimi-talebi-sekillendirirken-altin-4-450-dolarin-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi talebi \u015fekillendirirken alt\u0131n 4.450 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle girse de ABD tahvil getirilerindeki gerileme ve zay\u0131f ABD ADP verisinin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) bask\u0131lamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen 4.450 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu zemin, daha s\u0131k\u0131 ABD para politikas\u0131 beklentileri ve y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon riskleriyle dengelendi; bu unsurlar getirileri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Jeopolitik gerilimler de g\u00fcvenli liman USD\u2019yi desteklerken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in (Federal Reserve) patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sinyal i\u00e7in Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisini bekliyor.<\/p>\n\n

CME Group\u2019un FedWatch arac\u0131, 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %62 olarak g\u00f6sterdi; bu beklenti, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan da g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. Petrol, \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n misillemeleri ile ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n bir yeni sald\u0131r\u0131ya haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle 24 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131; diren\u00e7 %38,2 seviyesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.438 dolarda bulunuyor. MACD pozitife d\u00f6nerken RSI 49 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmada hedefler 4.480 dolardaki 100 periyotluk SMA, ard\u0131ndan 4.487 ve 4.535; bunlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde 4.604 ve 4.692 izleniyor. Destek ise 4.378 ve ard\u0131ndan 4.282 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n\n

Alt\u0131n i\u00e7in Piyasa Kataliz\u00f6rleri ve Riskler<\/h3>\n\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.450 dolar seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda gezindi\u011fi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n temkinli hareket etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Zay\u0131f gelen ABD ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisi son d\u00f6nemde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, d\u00fc\u015fen tahvil getirileri de\u011ferli metal i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Ancak ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin 4,15 civar\u0131nda tutundu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131; olas\u0131 ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, alt\u0131ndaki bu toparlanmay\u0131 h\u0131zla sonland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ana belirleyicisi \u015fu anda 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Fed politika toplant\u0131s\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015fu an %62 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski ile inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun birle\u015fiminin, alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131lar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u201cgreenback\u201de y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinin Fed\u2019i agresif kalmaya zorlay\u0131p zorlamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyi; bunun da nihai olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fini not ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Teknik Seviyeler ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

K\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc, piyasa beklentilerinin istihdamda istikrarl\u0131 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fi Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi olacak. Beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin patikas\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirerek alt\u0131nda sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klanana kadar t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kenarda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 4.438 dolardaki %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu bariyerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerde bir sonraki hedef 4.480 dolardaki 100 periyotluk SMA olacakt\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kalmas\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla 4.378 dolardaki kritik deste\u011fe \u00e7ekebilir; daha derin bir taban ise 4.282 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler 4.450\u2019de: D\u00fc\u015fen getiriler desteklese de %62\u2019lik Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon ve jeopolitik risk USD\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Cuma NFP kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t