Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ), Oy Birli\u011fiyle ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararla Resmi Nakit Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; b\u00f6ylece piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu \u015fekilde \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Buna ra\u011fmen NZD\/USD zirveden dibe yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,7 geriledi; 0,5900 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndan 0,5800 b\u00f6lgesine kayd\u0131ktan sonra 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131 (EMA) \u00fczerinde bulundu\u011fu 0,5850\u2019ye do\u011fru toparland\u0131. Piyasalar, RBNZ\u2019nin y\u0131l sonuna kadar yaln\u0131zca bir adet ek 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesiyle beklenen patikay\u0131 yeniden fiyatlad\u0131; bu, daha \u00f6nce 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar fiyatlanan yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 baz puanl\u0131k ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmayla \u00e7eli\u015fiyordu. S\u00f6z konusu ayarlama yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 dakikada ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve Kiwi\u2019yi Tokyo a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri aras\u0131nda en zay\u0131f konumda b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Enflasyon verileri, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte man\u015fet enflasyonun %4,1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, ara\u00e7 yak\u0131tlar\u0131 hari\u00e7 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm %2,9 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; Ham Petrol 90,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. AUD\/NZD %1,07 y\u00fckselerek 2013\u2019ten bu yana ge\u00e7ilemeyen bir tavan olan 1,2300\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131; Avustralya dolar\u0131 ise ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. Yakla\u015fan kataliz\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda 01:45 GMT\u2019de \u00c7in hizmetler anketi (beklenti 50,6; \u00f6nceki 50,4), ard\u0131ndan 12:30 GMT\u2019de ABD i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve 14:00 GMT\u2019de ISM hizmetler PMI (beklenti 54,3; \u00f6nceki fiyatlar \u00f6denen endeksi 70,3) yer al\u0131yor; Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 58 bin artmas\u0131 (\u00f6nceki -23 bin), i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,1 ve kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n %0,3 gelmesi bekleniyor; \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 ise 47 bine kar\u015f\u0131 38 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 0,5850 seviyesi s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir b\u00f6lge; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA bunun yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 pip \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. Yukar\u0131da 0,5900 ve 0,5950 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; destekler 0,5800, ard\u0131ndan 0,5750 ve 0,5700 seviyeleri. Stoch RSI 62 civar\u0131nda ve 0,5900 \u00fczerinde bir kapan\u0131\u015f \u201cd\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d \u00e7izgisi olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltme karar\u0131, sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek NZD\/USD\u2019yi 0,5850 seviyesine itti. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, paritenin 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u015fekilde tutunmas\u0131 nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu tepki, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck yatay projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
RBNZ, bir \u201cbekleme\u201d ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a muhtemel oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fiminin piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fczle\u015fti\u011fini ortaya koydu. Bu karar \u00f6ncesinde faiz piyasalar\u0131, gelecek y\u0131la kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 baz puanl\u0131k ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu; ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan b\u00fcy\u00fck fark \u015fimdi agresif bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bunu perspektife oturtmak gerekirse, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k oran\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,8\u2019i seviyesinde geni\u015f kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da para birimini sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 son derece hassas b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, Yeni Zelanda\u2019da %4,1\u2019e ula\u015fan enflasyonun, oynak ara\u00e7 yak\u0131tlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda %2,9\u2019a geriledi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fine yak\u0131ndan bakmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu enflasyonun, jeopolitik gerilimlerin y\u00fckselmesiyle 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nan ham petrol\u00fcn de etkisiyle ithal k\u00fcresel enerji \u015foklar\u0131ndan kaynaklanmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bunu so\u011futma etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacakt\u0131r. K\u00fcresel talep zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye ba\u015flarsa, RBNZ\u2019nin olas\u0131 ek art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik gerek\u00e7e h\u0131zla ortadan kalkacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, AUD\/NZD paritesinin %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 1,2300\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131ndan da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcnden ziyade i\u00e7sel\/d\u00f6nemsel nedenlerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durum, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f taleple de peki\u015fiyor; son d\u00f6nemde imalat ve hizmet PMI\u2019lar\u0131 dura\u011fan 50 e\u015fi\u011fi etraf\u0131nda seyretmeye devam ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kiwi\u2019nin hem Avustralya dolar\u0131 hem de ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 makul g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in kritik teknik seviyelere odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131; \u00f6zellikle 0,5850\u2019deki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Kritik 0,5800 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkma, bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda yap\u0131sal deste\u011fin olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle 0,5750\u2019ye do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir. 0,5900 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rmeden\u2014ki bu, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli\u2014paritede negatif e\u011filimimizi koruyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok hamle de\u011fil, \u015fok fiyatlama: RBNZ faizi %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ancak \u201ctek ek art\u0131\u015f\u201d sinyali NZD\/USD\u2019yi %1,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp 0,5850\u2019ye itti; odakta 0,5800 deste\u011fi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50477,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t