{"id":53575,"date":"2026-09-03T03:27:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T03:27:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-mudahale-soylentilerinin-yeniden-gundeme-gelmesiyle-160-seviyesinden-geri-cekildi-piyasalar-boj-ve-abd-verilerine-odaklandi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T03:27:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T03:27:20","slug":"usd-jpy-mudahale-soylentilerinin-yeniden-gundeme-gelmesiyle-160-seviyesinden-geri-cekildi-piyasalar-boj-ve-abd-verilerine-odaklandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-mudahale-soylentilerinin-yeniden-gundeme-gelmesiyle-160-seviyesinden-geri-cekildi-piyasalar-boj-ve-abd-verilerine-odaklandi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, M\u00fcdahale S\u00f6ylentilerinin Yeniden G\u00fcndeme Gelmesiyle 160 Seviyesinden Geri \u00c7ekildi; Piyasalar BoJ ve ABD Verilerine Odakland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, Asya i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 160,00\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak Temmuz sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak toplant\u0131 \u00f6zetinin ard\u0131ndan ve yeni m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylentileriyle 2 yenden fazla geri \u00e7ekilerek 158,50 civar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 158,50 seviyesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 pip kadar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra yeniden geri al\u0131nd\u0131. Alt\u0131 hafta \u00f6nce Japonya ve ABD, 1998\u2019den bu yana ilk ortak yen-al\u0131m operasyonunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi: Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya kaynakl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 milyar dolar, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 25 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu, takip eden Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc de ilave bir dilim geldi\u011fi bildirildi; ABD aya\u011f\u0131 ise 5-10 milyar dolar olarak tahmin edildi. Parite 164,00\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerden yakla\u015f\u0131k 155,25\u2019e geriledi; bu, 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir tutara kar\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 yenlik hareket anlam\u0131na geliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n be\u015f hafta i\u00e7inde yeniden 160,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Tokyo\u2019nun m\u00fcdahale kapasitesi, Hazine tahvili teminat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dolar likiditesi sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in bir imk\u00e2n\u0131na eri\u015fimle destekleniyor; bu da tahvilleri do\u011frudan satma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Ancak operasyonlar, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden bask\u0131n hale gelen temel dinamikler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi 1996\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez %3\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131; bu hareket, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerinden ziyade mali geni\u015fleme ve bor\u00e7-servis matemati\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde fiyatlan\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) karar\u0131na ve ABD verilerine \u00e7evriliyor: 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 203 bin\u2019den 205 bin\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; 14:00 GMT\u2019de ISM hizmetler PMI 54,1\u2019den 54,3\u2019e, \u00f6nceki \u201cprices paid\u201d endeksi 70,3 seviyesinde. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 47 bin\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 38 bin geldi. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n, \u00f6nceki veri setinde 23 bin istihdam kayb\u0131 sonras\u0131, 58 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi; i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,1, \u00fccretlerin ayl\u0131k %0,3 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca 12:30 ve 19:00 GMT\u2019de iki Fed yetkilisinin konu\u015fmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta 160,00 seviyesi 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; destekler 158,50 ard\u0131ndan 158,00. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 157,50 civar\u0131nda; m\u00fcdahale dip seviyesi 155,25. Stoch RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 87.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev Stratejisi: USD\/JPY G\u00fcc\u00fc \u0130\u00e7in Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Tokyo\u2019dan gelen s\u00fcregelen m\u00fcdahale uyar\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 160,00\u2019\u0131 yoklad\u0131ktan sonra 158,50\u2019ye gerilese de, bu t\u00fcr geri \u00e7ekilmeler trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k ortak m\u00fcdahalelerin dahi yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n temel dinamiklerinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden bask\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

158,50\u2019deki kritik destek taban\u0131 korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri (\u00f6rne\u011fin al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call al\u0131m\u0131) tercih ediyoruz. Bu seviyeden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tepki, \u00f6nce 160,00\u2019\u0131n yeniden test edilmesini ve potansiyel olarak 164,00 civar\u0131ndaki zirveye y\u00f6nelimi g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Ancak parite 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama olan 157,50 civar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapabilirse, o noktada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne d\u00f6ner ve uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 kapat\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Makro \u00c7er\u00e7eve: Getiriler, Merkez Bankalar\u0131 ve Kritik Veri Ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Japon 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri son d\u00f6nemde %3 ile \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveye \u00e7\u0131ksa da, bu hareket agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinden ziyade y\u00fcksek kamu borcu arz\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. BoJ 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rsa bile, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de toplanacak Fed ile getiri fark\u0131 2,5 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam edecektir. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck getiri fark\u0131 nedeniyle, resmi ad\u0131mlarla olu\u015fabilecek her geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan carry i\u015flemlerinin k\u0131sa yen pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden kurmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi, 160,00 seviyesinin ne h\u0131zla yeniden test edilece\u011fini belirleyecek kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri, BoJ toplant\u0131 f\u0131rsat\u0131 dahi bulamadan pariteyi yeniden 160,00\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu oynakl\u0131kta, ani ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli m\u00fcdahale s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bariyerler veya risk reversal stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dikkat: USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylentileriyle 158,50\u2019ye indi. 100+ milyar $\u2019l\u0131k hamleler etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. BoJ 18 Eyl\u00fcl, ABD verileri belirleyici; 158,50 \u00fcst\u00fcnde y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu \u00f6nde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t