Sterlin, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015finin kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da geri verdi; GBP\/USD, seans i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 1,3475\u2019in hemen alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3500\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu tablo, pariteyi a\u011fustos sonundaki 1,3700\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndaki zirvenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 alt\u0131na ve son \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131rken; \u0130ngiltere 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri 2008\u2019den bu yana ilk kez %5,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve uzun vadeli tarafta da 18 y\u0131l\u0131n yeni zirveleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki planl\u0131 MPC karar\u0131, politika karar\u0131na e\u015flik eden y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt sat\u0131\u015f plan\u0131n\u0131n da yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle hem bir \u201cfaiz\u201d hem de bir \u201carz\u201d olay\u0131 olarak fiyatlan\u0131yor; Bank Rate beklentileri ise yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fti: Temmuz\u2019da dokuz oyun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc %4\u2019\u00fc tercih etmi\u015fti ve tahminlerin \u00e7o\u011fu y\u0131l sonuna kadar de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. 28 Ekim\u2019deki ilk B\u00fct\u00e7e \u00f6ncesinde mali arz taraf\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisi a\u011fustosta 38 bin ile 47 binlik beklentinin ve 46 binlik \u00f6nceki verinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ancak Jackson Hole\u2019dan gelen \u201cenflasyon anlaml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde so\u011fumad\u0131\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu ve 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima eden fiyatlama yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikiye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yenilenen ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez genelindeki misillemelerin etkisiyle petrol 90,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken; Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri temmuzda %0,9 artarak %0,6\u2019l\u0131k beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 ve Beige Book\u2019un 18:00 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 14:00 GMT\u2019de ISM PMI verisi 54,1\u2019den 54,3\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle izlenecek; daha \u00f6nce \u201cprices paid\u201d 70,3 seviyesindeydi. 12:30 GMT\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 203 binden 205 bine y\u00fckseli\u015f tahminiyle a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; 09:30 GMT\u2019de Challenger i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131 33,429 binin ard\u0131ndan gelecek. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n \u00f6nceki 23 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 58 bin artmas\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,1\u2019de kalmas\u0131; kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Grafiklerde diren\u00e7 1,3500 ard\u0131ndan 1,3550 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA; destek ise 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 1,3400 civar\u0131nda, sonra 1,3350, 1,3300, 1,3200 ve 1,3150 civar\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor; Stoch RSI ise 90\u2019a yak\u0131n seviyelerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131vr\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131ndaki oynak merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Sterlinin 1,3500\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na gerileyerek a\u011fustos zirvesine g\u00f6re %1,5 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, y\u00fckselen \u0130ngiltere tahvil getirilerinin art\u0131k para birimini desteklemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun yerine 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirilerinin %5,20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, cazip faiz farklar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok yakla\u015fan bor\u00e7 arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3500 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde sat\u0131\u015f (short) \u00f6neriyoruz; 1,3550\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmal\u0131. 1,3400\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) son savunma hatt\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma 1,3300\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Son piyasa verileri, \u0130ngiltere kamu net borcunun GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %98\u2019i civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum ekim B\u00fct\u00e7esi \u00f6ncesinde mali endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise ABD Dolar\u0131n\u0131n, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, ABD enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fcksek tutarak bu ay Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ima edilen fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 %65\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) de\u011ferlendirebilir veya y\u00fckseli\u015flerde GBP satmak i\u00e7in limit emirleri kullanabilir; zira makro arka plan belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u201cgreenback\u201d lehine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\u2019de alarm zilleri: GBP\/USD 1,3500 alt\u0131nda, a\u011fustos zirvesinden %1,5 geriledi. Gilt faizi %5,20\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131; MPC \u201cfaiz+arz\u201d riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Dolar\/petrol g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; sat\u0131\u015f stratejisi \u00f6nde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t