WTI \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izledi; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin risk primini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131yla 24 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Kontrat, 90,78 dolar\u0131 test ettikten sonra varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89,70 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130slami Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu, su yolundan ge\u00e7i\u015f yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan iki petrol tankerinin deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131na \u00e7arpt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; uyar\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate almamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gemilerin hareket kabiliyetini yitirdi\u011fini ve m\u00fcrettebat\u0131n tahliye edilmek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar, ABD stok verilerinden de destek buldu. EIA, ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 1,1 milyon varillik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 4,45 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; bu, bir \u00f6nceki haftaki 95 bin varillik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi. B\u00f6lgesel ihracat ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminleri arz\u0131n toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti: Goldman Sachs ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi 20 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisi olarak hesaplarken, ABD Enerji Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ortalama 8 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fini, buna ek olarak 4 ila 5 milyon varilin boru hatlar\u0131yla ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak OPEC+ toplant\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fcndemde; raporlar Ekim politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, grafikler 90-92 dolar band\u0131nda diren\u00e7, RSI\u2019da 64\u2019e yak\u0131n seviye, MACD\u2019de pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve ADX\u2019te 16 civar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol (WTI) 89,70 dolardaki alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrederken temkinli, bant i\u00e7i bir strateji benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olsa da 90-92 dolar aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik diren\u00e7, k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi\u2019nin (ADX) zay\u0131f bir seviye olan 16\u2019da bulunmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ralliye al\u0131mla e\u015flik etmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131 ve bunun yerine konsolidasyona haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131ndaki bask\u0131lar\u0131n hafiflemesini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; zira raporlar, Basra K\u00f6rfezi petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisine, yani 13,3 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn civar\u0131na toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan h\u00e2l\u00e2 8 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ge\u00e7erken, 5 milyon varile kadar hacmin boru hatlar\u0131yla bo\u011faz\u0131 baypas etmesi, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ani bir arz \u015foku riskini azalt\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyelden faydalanmak i\u00e7in 92 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak strateji kurabilir.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise, son ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 4,45 milyon varil gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan 85 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama civar\u0131nda sa\u011flam bir destek bekliyoruz. Bu azal\u0131\u015f, piyasan\u0131n 1,1 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek fiziksel talebin y\u00fcksek diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. OPEC+\u2019\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcretim hedeflerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, 85 dolarl\u0131k bu taban yak\u0131n\u0131nda prim toplamak i\u00e7in kredi spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik belirsizlik, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011fundan opsiyon primleri \u015fu anda kayda de\u011fer bir risk primi fiyatl\u0131yor. 85-92 dolar band\u0131na odaklanan iron condor gibi n\u00f6tr stratejilerin, h\u0131zl\u0131 zaman de\u011feri erimesinden (theta) faydalanmak i\u00e7in uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu konumlanma, piyasan\u0131n mevcut dalgal\u0131 ve yatay seyrinden prim toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 da korur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI, Orta Do\u011fu risk primi ve EIA\u2019da 4,45 milyon varillik stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle 89,70 dolarda; tanker kazalar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. 90-92 diren\u00e7, 85 destek; OPEC+ \u00f6ncesi bant i\u00e7i opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t