Sterlin, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,11 gerileyerek \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi; 1,3474\u2019\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra GBP\/USD 1,3500 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken Dolar Endeksi (DXY) negatif b\u00f6lgede i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi: ABD ve \u0130ran son iki g\u00fcnde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi ve D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye diplomatik personelin yeniden konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik planlar\u0131 duraklatt\u0131. ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 so\u011fudu; ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi, Temmuz\u2019daki 46 binin ard\u0131ndan A\u011fustos\u2019ta 47 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 38 bin art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
Daha zay\u0131f istihdam verisine ra\u011fmen, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131nda fiyatlar y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa Fed\u2019in \u201cyapmas\u0131 gereken i\u015fler\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta maliye bakan\u0131, ilk Burnham b\u00fct\u00e7esinin 28 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Rachel Reeves taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen bor\u00e7lanma kurallar\u0131n\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, y\u0131l sonuna kadar 32 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; takvimde BoE Para Politikas\u0131 Oturumu ve Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey\u2019nin konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ABD\u2019de A\u011fustos ISM Hizmetler PMI ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verileri yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin, ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fcksek seyri ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik risklerin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda 1,3442\u2019deki kritik deste\u011fe yak\u0131n dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki son askeri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolara yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir risk olmaya devam ediyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, yakla\u015fan ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam ve ISM hizmet verilerinin yaratmas\u0131 beklenen sert oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
ADP verisinin A\u011fustos\u2019ta yaln\u0131zca 38 bin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131na i\u015faret etmesine ra\u011fmen, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri \u0131srarla %4,30 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019daki \u015fahin duru\u015fuyla destekleniyor; buna g\u00f6re yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ABD faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda tahvil getirilerinde olas\u0131 ek y\u00fckseli\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131 veya tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine uzun put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda GBP\/USD, 1,3500 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda konsolide olurken 1,3442\u2019deki hareketli ortalama k\u00fcmelenmesinin \u00fczerinde yap\u0131sal olarak yap\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n 1,3442\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, 1,3300 hedefiyle k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 1,3544 direncinin \u00fczerine bir hareket, 1,3600 seviyesine do\u011fru bir toparlanmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in 32 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 BoE patikas\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor. Bu beklenti, 28 Ekim\u2019deki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e duyurusuyla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay Sterlin\u2019in ima edilen volatilitesini muhtemelen y\u00fcksek tutacakt\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verilerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk dalga yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra daha geni\u015f bantta vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarda prim satarak (premium selling) bundan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin 3 haftan\u0131n dibine inerken jeopolitik risk ve 85 dolarl\u0131k Brent enflasyon korkusunu art\u0131rd\u0131. ADP zay\u0131f, tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek. G\u00f6zler NFP\/ISM, BoE; kritik destek 1,3442.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t