Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA) 53.000 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti; 52.750\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 250 puan y\u00fckseldi. Endeks, 52.700 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckselen 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131na sark\u0131p ard\u0131ndan hareketi geri ald\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7 ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f seans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen bu dalgalanma yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5\u2019e denk geldi. Fiyatlama tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131 izledi: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %4,818\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak en son Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %5,28\u2019in \u00fczerinde, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz ise %4,40 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da devlet tahvilleri g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde de\u011fer kaybederken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelerde kald\u0131; hisse senetleri ise uzun vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fi durunca y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin fiyatlamalar kayd\u0131: Eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k bir hafta \u00f6nceki %40 seviyesinden %66\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol ve veriler g\u00fcndemin oda\u011f\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti. WTI 90,00 dolar\u0131n, Brent ise 94,50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Brent, sava\u015f\u0131n 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki seviyelere g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 dolar daha yukar\u0131dayd\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda iki tankerin vurulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin, Bender Abbas yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcney k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131 boyunca IRGC (Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131) hedeflerini vurdu\u011fu bildirildi. Bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet tahminine g\u00f6re bo\u011fazdan pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 17 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7i\u015f oldu; sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil oldu\u011fu belirtiliyordu. Ancak takip verileri, 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131 14 civar\u0131nda olan emtia gemisi say\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yaln\u0131zca be\u015f gemi kaydetti; ayn\u0131 takip kurumu daha sonra ham petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 8,6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olarak revize etti. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 a\u011fustosta 38 bin artarak 47 bin beklentisinin ve \u00f6nceki 46 binin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Takvimde, Bej Kitap 18:00 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlanacak; politika yap\u0131c\u0131 konu\u015fmalar\u0131 per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 ve 19:00 GMT\u2019de. ISM hizmetler endeksi 54,1\u2019den 54,3\u2019e beklenirken, \u00f6denen fiyatlar 70,3 ve istihdam 47,4 seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bile\u015fik PMI 13:45 GMT\u2019de 56 bekleniyor; haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 203 binden 205 bine tahmin ediliyor. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n, 23 binlik daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 58 bin art\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nmesi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,1; kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,1) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3 (\u00f6nceki %3,2) gelmesi bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 53.200 \u00fczeri ve ard\u0131ndan 53.500 diren\u00e7; 53.800, 54.000 ve 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndaki rekor seviye ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 daha yukar\u0131da izleniyor. Destek 53.000\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 52.700 ve 52.500 seviyelerinde; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ise 50.000 civar\u0131nda. Stoch RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 34\u2019teydi; 52.700 alt\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 52.000\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 not edildi.<\/p>\n\n
Dow Jones\u2019u 53.000 seviyesinde oyalan\u0131rken yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; kritik 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 52.700\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla hedge yapmak gerekiyor. Endeks 52.700\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yaparsa y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi biter ve 52.000 hedefli put al\u0131m\u0131na d\u00f6nmeliyiz. Tarihsel olarak bu kilit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar, \u00f6nceki y\u00fcksek faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck hisse geri \u00e7ekilmelerine benzer \u015fekilde yo\u011fun otomatik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikler.<\/p>\n\n
Bu hisse toparlanmas\u0131 tamamen tahvil piyasas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce %4,818\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rayan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizini \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan takip etmeliyiz. Piyasalar 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki %40\u2019tan %66\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131rken, faize duyarl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde risk y\u00fcksek. 30 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n %5,28\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, enflasyon endi\u015felerinin bitmekten uzak oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti\u011finden, tahvil ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde volatilite stratejileri kullanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Brent 94,50 dolar\u0131n ve WTI 90,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken petrol\u00fcn tepe yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki iddialara kar\u015f\u0131 son derece temkinli kalmal\u0131y\u0131z. Ger\u00e7ek zamanl\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan fiili ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n resmi h\u00fck\u00fcmet tahminlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 olan 8,6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcne daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu eksik raporlanan arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisseleri ve ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak \u00fczere al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n\n
A\u011fustosta \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n 38 binle zay\u0131f gelmesi, \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc veri hisseyi y\u00fckseltir\u201d \u015feklindeki geleneksel e\u011filimin bozuldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ISM hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc saatlik kazan\u00e7 verisi \u00f6ncesinde ana endekslerde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu veriler, enflasyonun hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne daha derin s\u0131z\u0131p s\u0131zmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek; Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in nihai stres testi niteli\u011finde olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dow 53 bin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %4,818\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %66\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi Brent\u2019i 94,5 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; 52.700 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t