ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Japon Yeni\u2019nin sert bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi ve \u201cGreenback\u201dteki \u00f6nceki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi. DXY, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 99,86 ile 14 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,11 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,55 civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7irdi. USD\/JPY, 160 seviyesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 geriledi ve daha sonra 158,80 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale veya \u201crate check\u201d gibi d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; ancak resmi bir do\u011frulama yoktu. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki son koordineli m\u00fcdahale, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan 164\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelere y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan Temmuz sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
Yen\u2019deki hareket, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na da yay\u0131ld\u0131; EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7i diplerinden toparlan\u0131rken, daha zay\u0131f ABD verileri bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi verisi, A\u011fustos\u2019ta \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n 38 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu, 47 binlik beklentinin ve Temmuz\u2019daki 46 binin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamalar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; CME FedWatch, 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019e i\u015faret etti (bir hafta \u00f6nce %36). Hazine tahvil getirileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 4,81\u2019i test ettikten sonra 4,79 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve piyasalar Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporunu bekledi. Bu seviye, Ekim 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey.<\/p>\n\n
Japon Yeni\u2019nin sert y\u00fckselmesi ve USD\/JPY\u2019nin olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcphesiyle 158,80\u2019e gerilemesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2022 sonu ve 2024 ortas\u0131ndaki \u00f6rneklerde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n tek tarafl\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 seansta %5\u2019e varan ani JPY rallilerini tetikleyebiliyor. Paritenin kritik 160 e\u015fi\u011fi \u00e7evresinde seyretti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, portf\u00f6yleri daha sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70\u2019e h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi, faiz t\u00fcrevlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131n aktif bi\u00e7imde yeniden ayarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin 4,79 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatmas\u0131 halinde teknik olarak %5,0 band\u0131na do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yol olu\u015fturuyor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc getiri bask\u0131s\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Hazine tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon veya uzun vadeli tahvillerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu, ADP\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca 38 binlik zay\u0131f \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 teyit edebilecek veya bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karabilecek kritik kataliz\u00f6r konumunda. B\u00fcy\u00fck istihdam s\u00fcrprizlerinin, a\u00e7\u0131klama g\u00fcn\u00fcnde USD\/JPY\u2019de tarihsel olarak 100 pipin \u00fczerinde ortalama hareketler \u00fcretti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, y\u00f6n se\u00e7meyen opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Veriden \u00f6nce y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan bu beklenen hareketlerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi veya maj\u00f6r pariteler \u00fczerinde uzun straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen\u2019de sert ralli DXY\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti: USD\/JPY 160 e\u015fi\u011finden 158,80\u2019e indi, m\u00fcdahale spek\u00fclasyonu artt\u0131. Zay\u0131f ADP, Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; NFP \u00f6ncesi opsiyonla korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t