EUR\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, yenin genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve piyasalar\u0131n Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi yapabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 nedeniyle geriledi. \u00c7apraz kur, daha \u00f6nce 185,75\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 183,64 civar\u0131na indi ve son olarak 184,03 yak\u0131n\u0131nda, %0,89\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yen, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da ani \u015fekilde de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler y\u00fcksek seyrini korusa da ABD hisse senedi endeksleri pozitif b\u00f6lgede i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol gerilerken haftal\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n kald\u0131; Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) 90,00 dolar e\u015fi\u011fi civar\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta EUR\/JPY 183,97 seviyesinde kotasyon g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 184,15\u2019teki direncin alt\u0131nda ve 184,81 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken hafif negatif bir e\u011filimi korudu. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 43\u2019e geriledi ve bir sonraki trend \u00e7izgisi bariyeri 189,44 yak\u0131n\u0131nda konumland\u0131. \u0130lave diren\u00e7, 50-, 100- ve 200-periyot hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n 184,81 civar\u0131ndaki kesi\u015fim b\u00f6lgesinde tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde destek 174,16 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ayr\u0131 olarak G20\u2019de ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda uygun \u015fekilde hareket etmesini bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin m\u00fcdahaleye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istek g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yen \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. EUR\/JPY\u2019nin 185,75\u2019ten 183,64\u2019e ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, m\u00fcdahale korkular\u0131 tetiklendi\u011finde piyasan\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in, ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalardan faydalan\u0131rken toplam sermaye riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na EUR\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131na \u00f6ncelik vermeliyiz.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor ve bu da BoJ\u2019u yenin daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 zay\u0131f yenle birlikte y\u00fckseldi\u011finde Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 agresif \u015fekilde devreye girdi; 2024\u2019teki 9,8 trilyon yenlik dev m\u00fcdahale bunun \u00f6rne\u011fiydi. Bu tarihsel emsalden hareketle, EUR\/JPY\u2019nin yeniden son zirveleri test etmesi halinde, devlet destekli yen rallilerinin sert olmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan EUR\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; RSI\u2019\u0131n 43\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve fiyat\u0131n 184,15 direncinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bunu destekliyor. Bu paritede bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131 veya dikey ay\u0131 spreadleriyle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 174,16 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki ana destek seviyesinin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. M\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylentilerinin artmas\u0131yla z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, bu y\u00fcksek stresli ortamda volatilite straddle\u2019lar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiriler sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in yeni a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda yeni destekleme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 savunmas\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemek amac\u0131yla kur istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde koordineli bir dikkat oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri ithalat enflasyonuyla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda %1,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine do\u011fru t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, EUR\/JPY \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131 daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ne kayacakt\u0131r. BoJ\u2019un yakla\u015fan politika duyurular\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; \u015fahin bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi bu negatif e\u011filimi h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" M\u00fcdahale korkusu piyasay\u0131 vurdu: EUR\/JPY 185,75\u2019ten 183,64\u2019e sert sark\u0131p 184 civar\u0131nda %0,9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. RSI 43\u2019te zay\u0131f; 184,15 diren\u00e7. T\u00fcrevde put\/spread, straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t