GBP\/JPY, Yen\u2019in genel \u00e7apta g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 geriledi. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 213,70 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dip seviyenin ard\u0131ndan 214,43 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu, 10 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en zay\u0131f d\u00fczeye i\u015faret etti. Hareket, USD\/JPY\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 takip etti ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeniden m\u00fcdahalede bulunabilece\u011fine dair spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; ancak resmi bir do\u011frulama yap\u0131lmad\u0131. Yen\u2019e destek, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) daha \u015fahinle\u015fece\u011fi beklentilerinden de geldi: BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir ba\u015fka faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, kurul \u00fcyesi Hajime Takata her ad\u0131mda sabit %0,25\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f yerine \u201cdaha \u00e7evik bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015flemeci maliye duru\u015fu, y\u00fcksek kamu borcu ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131 ise Yen\u2019de ilave kazan\u0131mlara y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki maliye endi\u015feleri ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; BoE\u2019nin bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faizleri %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey, daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci tur etkilerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak Scotiabank, Haziran sonundaki PM Burnham\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6reve ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana GBP alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fti\u011fini ve y\u00f6n\u00fcn Ekim sonundaki Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7esine ba\u011fl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini belirtti. Teknik tarafta GBP\/JPY, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; 214,47\u2019deki %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda bulunuyor ve RSI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda, MACD hafif negatif, ADX ise 17 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 214,47, 215, 215,62 ve 216 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; destek seviyeleri 213,53, 213, 212,60, 211,27 ve 209,58 olarak belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni\u2019nin sert y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle GBP\/JPY \u00fczerinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; parite yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 gerileyerek 214,43 civar\u0131na indi. Pariteyi 10 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine \u00e7eken bu ani hareket, USD\/JPY\u2019nin kritik 160 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan h\u00fck\u00fcmet m\u00fcdahalesine y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131yla geldi. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Yen ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korumaya talebin keskin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan g\u00f6stergeler nedeniyle daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc, BoJ\u2019un \u015fahinle\u015fen duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde \u015fekillendiriyor; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar 17-18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun son d\u00f6nemde %2,5 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde yatay seyretmesi, Ba\u015fkan Ueda \u00fczerindeki para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda daha \u00e7evik bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma i\u015faret etmesiyle birlikte, de\u011fi\u015fen faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla GBP\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise \u0130ngiliz Sterlini, BoE\u2019nin bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileriyle bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor. Bu duru\u015f, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta yava\u015flayan bir ekonomiyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor; son GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00e7eyreklik bazda m\u00fctevaz\u0131 %0,2\u2019ye gerilerken, enflasyon merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedefi civar\u0131nda dengelendi. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, para politikas\u0131 patikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/JPY y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin \u201cbear call spread\u201d stratejileriyle sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, hem 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hem de 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n 50 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na gerilemesi ve MACD\u2019nin negatif b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7mesiyle momentumun a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde sat\u0131c\u0131lardan yana oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130lk etapta 213,53\u2019teki %50 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin hedeflenmesini, ikincil hedef olarak ise 213,00 civar\u0131ndaki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Ekim sonundaki b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00f6ncesinde Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n maliye kaynakl\u0131 daha geni\u015f risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmak gerekiyor; bu riskler Sterlin oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in 214,47\u2019deki kilit diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde koruyucu al\u0131\u015f-stoplar\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 veya para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Piyasa hem BoJ\u2019un yakla\u015fan politika karar\u0131n\u0131 hem de Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki mali testleri fiyatlarken, bu pozisyonlar\u0131n dengelenmesi kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sertle\u015fen BoJ beklentisi ve olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylentileri Yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; GBP\/JPY %1 d\u00fc\u015ferek 214,4\u2019e indi. Sterlin maliye kayg\u0131lar\u0131yla zay\u0131f. Teknikte SMA alt\u0131; 213,5 destek, 214,5 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t