EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yatay seyretti. ABD Dolar\u0131, \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki artan gerilimlerin deste\u011fiyle diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. ABD\u2019de daha yumu\u015fak istihdam sinyalleri ve ABD tahvil getirilerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; parite 1,1580 civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,11 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131. ADP verisine g\u00f6re \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 38 bin artt\u0131 (beklenti 47 bin); Temmuz verisi ise 46 bine yukar\u0131 revize edildi. Bu tablo, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesinde piyasa tonunu belirledi.<\/p>\n
ABD tahvil getirileri hafif gerilerken y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %4,81\u2019e (Ekim 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra %4,78 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Dolar Endeksi, iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 99,87\u2019yi test ettikten sonra 99,74 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar Fed patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlarken, CME FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl 15\u201316 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019e y\u00fckseltti (bir hafta \u00f6nce %36). Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise ECB\u2019nin, 9\u201310 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 bekleniyor. A\u011fustos\u2019ta HICP enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e (Temmuz: %2,9) y\u00fckseldi; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00dcFE, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1580 civar\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011fu ve b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na sadece g\u00fcnler kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede volatilitede beklenen s\u0131\u00e7ramaya haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k verileri, yaz tatilinden d\u00f6nen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011fun politika takvimiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n genellikle %10\u2019dan fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ECB\u2019nin 9\u201310 Eyl\u00fcl ve Fed\u2019in 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD straddle (al\u0131m-sat\u0131m straddle) stratejisi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ay Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin %70\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla birlikte, temel e\u011filim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu e\u011filimden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1500 seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedefleyen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etmesi durumunda k\u00e2rlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimler enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterken, bu durum tarihsel olarak g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cGreenback\u201de y\u00f6nlendiren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f jeopolitik enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda \u2014 \u00f6rne\u011fin 2023 sonlar\u0131nda Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara y\u00f6neldi\u011fi arz endi\u015felerinde \u2014 Dolar Endeksi haftalar i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, olas\u0131 jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyonun %3,3 gibi y\u00fcksek seviyede olmas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin gelecek hafta mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ancak zay\u0131f perakende b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve imalattaki yava\u015flama, Euro\u2019daki olas\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamak i\u00e7in, prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 EUR\/USD call opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; ECB kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar NFP ve kritik Fed\/ECB haftas\u0131na kilitlenmi\u015fken EUR\/USD 1,1580\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eahin Fed beklentisi %70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, DXY g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Volatilite i\u00e7in straddle; 1,1500 alt\u0131 put spread, DXY call ve EUR\/USD call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t