USD\/JPY, BoJ Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Hajime Takata\u2019n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n eyl\u00fclde 50 baz puan faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fini veya ekime uzanan arka arkaya s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde hafif geriledi. Takata, politika kurulundaki \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fahinden biri ve politika faizinin h\u0131zla %2,00 \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d seviyesine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Eyl\u00fclde olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m, hazirandaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f temposuna i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Takata az\u0131nl\u0131kta kalmaya devam ediyor ve beklenti, BoJ eyl\u00fclde art\u0131rsa bile zay\u0131f i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na kadar beklemeye ge\u00e7ece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ana belirleyici olarak \u015fahin Fed \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor; USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160\u2013162 band\u0131nda daha uzun s\u00fcre kalabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Bu dinami\u011fin, Fed ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zedelemeden olas\u0131 yen al\u0131m m\u00fcdahalesini de zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen son \u015fahin s\u00f6yleme ra\u011fmen, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160-162 band\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyretmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Baz\u0131 BoJ politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 agresif 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 veya arka arkaya ad\u0131mlar\u0131 zorlasa da, y\u00f6netim kurulunun geneli zay\u0131f i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in eyl\u00fclden sonra duraklamaya y\u00fcksek ihtimalle y\u00f6nelecek. Bu arada, Fed\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fahin duru\u015fu ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ve faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015f tutacak.<\/p>\n\n
Bu senaryoda i\u015flem i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY \u201cbull call spread\u201dleri veya bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 162\u2019ye do\u011fru yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken BoJ\u2019un piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmas\u0131 halinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Tarihsel veriler, ABD-Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131 300 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi olmaks\u0131z\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019nin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi nadiren kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa konumlanmas\u0131na da bakmal\u0131y\u0131z; CFTC verileri tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini erteledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa yen pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla birikti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Benzer \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde, USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite genellikle %8-%10 band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131r; bu da uzun opsiyon stratejilerinin finansman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getirir. 163\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde \u201cknock-out\u201d tetikleyicili bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, olas\u0131 beklenmedik kamu m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korurken istikrarl\u0131 \u201ccarry trade\u201d benzeri getirileri yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ancak ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ani dalgalanmalar\u0131n tekrar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmal\u0131y\u0131z; \u00f6rne\u011fin Temmuz 2024\u2019teki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201ccarry trade\u201d \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi pariteyi 161\u2019den 141\u2019e \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. BoJ\u2019un nihai olarak politika faizini %2,00\u2019lik n\u00f6tr hedefe ta\u015f\u0131mak istemesi nedeniyle, beklenmedik bir \u015fahin uzla\u015f\u0131 ani \u201cmargin call\u201dlar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Ani yen s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131nda y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu finanse etmek amac\u0131yla para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 satmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ \u00fcyesi Takata\u2019n\u0131n 50 baz puan\/ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019yi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak az\u0131nl\u0131kta; zay\u0131f t\u00fcketim ve \u015fahin Fed\u2019le 160-162 band\u0131, opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f\/koruma stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t