{"id":53552,"date":"2026-09-02T14:26:32","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T14:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/getiriler-gerilerken-altin-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-yeniden-tirmandi-ancak-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-ve-dolar-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-02T14:26:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T14:26:32","slug":"getiriler-gerilerken-altin-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-yeniden-tirmandi-ancak-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-ve-dolar-yukselisi-sinirliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/getiriler-gerilerken-altin-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-yeniden-tirmandi-ancak-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-ve-dolar-yukselisi-sinirliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Getiriler gerilerken alt\u0131n 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131, ancak Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri ve dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,7 geriledikten sonra \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc dipten al\u0131mlarla toparland\u0131. ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme, metali yeniden 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Alt\u0131n, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.282 dolar ile 7 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra toparlanarak 4.334 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak kazan\u00e7lar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden alevlenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar petrol\u00fc y\u00fckselterek enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tahvillerde sat\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Getiriler gerilese de son zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %4,81\u2019e dokunduktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,78\u2019de kald\u0131; bu seviye Ekim 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi beklentisi, getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131k \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re, Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali, bir hafta \u00f6nceki %36\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131 da r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi; ancak daha zay\u0131f veriler hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131: ADP, A\u011fustos\u2019ta \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 47 bin beklentiye ve \u00f6nceki 46 bine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 38 bin olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 14 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 99,86\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 99,77 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 4.360 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 4.445 dolar \u00e7evresindeki Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI 45 seviyesindeyken MACD negatifti. Destekler 4.204 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.000 dolar, diren\u00e7ler ise 4.360 dolar, 4.446 dolar ve 4.688 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f E\u011filimli Makro Ortam i\u00e7in T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fi Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesinde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) i\u00e7in temkinli ve k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015f benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Metal bug\u00fcn 4.334 dolara do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6sterse de, daha geni\u015f makro ortam getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar aleyhine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde konumlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrev stratejiler, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmaya odaklan\u0131rken olas\u0131 volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na da pozisyon almal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %4,78 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirvelerde bulunuyor. \u0130statistiksel olarak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 tarihsel olarak takip eden iki haftada ortalama %4,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu getiri kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131dan faydalan\u0131rken prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n Yukar\u0131 Potansiyelini S\u0131n\u0131rlayan Teknik ve Makroekonomik Unsurlar<\/h3>\n

Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin ge\u00e7en haftaki %36\u2019dan %70\u2019e sert s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n h\u0131zla \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019i fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 tek bir haftada %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) takip eden iki haftada ortalama %1,5 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Bu USD g\u00fcc\u00fcnden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; hedef b\u00f6lge 4.360 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 olabilir.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) n\u00f6tr 50 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 hatt\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam verisi beklentileri a\u015farsa, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda 4.204 dolardaki alt Bollinger Band\u0131 deste\u011fine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in, 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na uzanan vadelerde, 4.200 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilim ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 genellikle g\u00fcvenli liman talebini tetiklese de, mevcut y\u00fcksek getiri ortam\u0131 bu koruma i\u015flevini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri enflasyonun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n\u0131n petrolle pozitif korelasyonu vakalar\u0131n %60\u2019\u0131nda bozulmu\u015ftur. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecek unsur olarak jeopolitik risklere bel ba\u011flanmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda dipten tepki gelse de ralli zay\u0131f: ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,78 ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, NFP \u00f6ncesi 4.204\u20134.000 risk, 4.360\u20134.446 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t