NZD\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,45 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5810 seviyesine geriledi. Bu hareket, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OCR) 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,5\u2019ten %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen geldi. Merkez bankas\u0131, enflasyonu %2 orta noktas\u0131na do\u011fru geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcrken b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in te\u015fviklerin kademeli olarak geri \u00e7ekilmesi gerekti\u011fini, \u015fimdiden ad\u0131m atman\u0131n ileride daha sert art\u0131\u015f riskini azaltabilece\u011fini belirtti. RBNZ, gelecekteki kararlar\u0131n\u0131 orta vadeli enflasyon risklerine ba\u011fl\u0131 tutarken, Ba\u015fkan da OCR patikas\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak \u00f6nceki projeksiyonlarla uyumlu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve mevcut ayarlar\u0131n etkisini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in daha fazla zamana ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Dikkat Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD A\u011fustos istihdam raporuna \u00e7evrildi. Beklentiler tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamda 58 bin art\u0131\u015f ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,1 olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Piyasalarda parite 0,5806\u2019dan fiyatlan\u0131rken, 0,5914 civar\u0131ndaki 100-periyot SMA\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 0,5876 dolay\u0131ndaki 200-periyot SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Diren\u00e7 0,5820\u2019den ba\u015flay\u0131p 0,5910\u2019a do\u011fru uzan\u0131yor. RSI 17 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,5820 ve 0,5860; destek ise 0,5800 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,5760 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kiwi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n NZD\/USD i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n mevsimsel olarak en zay\u0131f ay\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve son yirmi y\u0131lda ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu mevsimsel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne piyasan\u0131n hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla verdi\u011fi tepkiyle birle\u015fti\u011finde, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmelerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 17 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde bulunmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ge\u00e7ici bir teknik tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. \u0130statistiksel olarak, bu zaman diliminde RSI 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi\u011finde vakalar\u0131n %70\u2019inden fazlas\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fczeltme y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; ancak bu hareketler kilit hareketli ortalamalar civar\u0131nda yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Paritenin 0,5820\u2019den ba\u015flay\u0131p 200-periyot SMA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 0,5876 civar\u0131na uzanan s\u0131k diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru tepki vermesi halinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD istihdam raporu bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r konumunda. Ekonomistler 58 bin ki\u015filik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve %4,1 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, beklentiden yaln\u0131zca 30 bin ki\u015filik sapma bile verinin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk saatte NZD\/USD\u2019de 60\u201380 piplik belirgin bir harekete yol a\u00e7abiliyor. ABD verisinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda, 0,5800\u2019deki ilk deste\u011fin h\u0131zla k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da 0,5760 yatay taban\u0131na do\u011fru alan a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fcksek riskli ortam\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, 0,5910 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri gibi t\u00fcrev stratejilerin veya vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, genel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmeye imk\u00e2n verirken, kritik ABD verisi \u00f6ncesinde riski s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Disiplinin y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131 ve zarar-kes seviyelerinin yak\u0131n belirlenmesi \u00f6nemini koruyor; zira ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131fl\u0131k, mevcut k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda sert bir \u201cshort squeeze\u201d hareketini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de sert sat\u0131\u015f: NZD\/USD %1,45 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,5810\u2019a indi; RBNZ\u2019nin 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bile yetmedi. G\u00f6zler ABD istihdam\u0131nda; mevsimsellik zay\u0131f, RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m, diren\u00e7 0,5820\u20130,5910, destek 0,5800\/0,5760.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t