Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %2,25 seviyesinde de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi bekleniyor; piyasada s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015f beklentisi olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Temmuz man\u015fet T\u00dcFE yeniden %3,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi, ancak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %1,9\u2013%2,0 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda \u201c\u00e7apalanm\u0131\u015f\u201d oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Son d\u00f6nemde yurt i\u00e7i veriler daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; birka\u00e7 daha iyi i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verisi ve ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %3,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, odak ABD\u2013Kanada ticaret ve diplomatik gerilimlerindeki bozulmaya kayd\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131 tarifeleri b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, misilleme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini de kabul ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar ocak toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar 27 bp\u2019lik s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak bu fiyatlaman\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 USD faiz e\u011frisiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, karar sonras\u0131 beklentilerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Kanada dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f risk, tarifeler ileride m\u00fczakere edilip geri \u00e7ekilse bile ticaret belirsizli\u011finin \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fe al\u0131m planlar\u0131n\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilmesi. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda USD\/CAD i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; paritenin bu ay 1,400\u2019e do\u011fru ivmelenmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kanada dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131flamaya oynayacak \u015fekilde pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Man\u015fet enflasyonun son d\u00f6nemde %3,0\u2019a ula\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %1,9 civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 birle\u015fimi, USD\/CAD paritesinin y\u00fckselmesi i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ile Kanada aras\u0131ndaki artan ticaret s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeleri bask\u0131y\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131yor; tarihsel veriler, ticaret belirsizli\u011finin loonie \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ticaret yeniden m\u00fczakereleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan tarife anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131, \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fumas\u0131yla USD\/CAD\u2019in %4 ila %6 aras\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131n Kanada ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birini olu\u015fturdu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzayan bir ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n keskin kur de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl sonu vadeli, 1,400 hedefli kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (call spread) kullan\u0131m\u0131, i\u015flem prim maliyetlerini y\u00f6netmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken beklenen kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. K\u0131sa vadeli f\u0131rsat arayanlar i\u00e7in, yakla\u015fan ticaret duyurular\u0131 etraf\u0131nda haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, net tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoC\u2019nin faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon \u00e7apal\u0131 kal\u0131yor. ABD\u2013Kanada ticaret gerilimi loonie\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; USD\/CAD\u2019de 1,400 riskiyle OTM call stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t