USD\/IDR ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 17.810 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek tahvil faizleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte de\u011fer kazand\u0131. K\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini %4,80\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu seviye 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Bu arada ham petrol, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda olas\u0131 kesintilere ve yeniden artan enflasyon risklerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri b\u00fcy\u00fctmesiyle y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. Temmuz JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 7,27 milyon ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, ISM \u0130malat PMI a\u011fustosta 55,6\u2019dan 54,6\u2019ya geriledi ancak geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ipucu i\u00e7in ADP istihdam raporu ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine \u00e7evrildi. Endonezya\u2019da ise enflasyon, artan g\u0131da maliyetlerinin etkisiyle temmuzdaki \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k dip seviyeden a\u011fustosta h\u0131zland\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da Mart 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parlamento, Destry Damayanti\u2019yi Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank Indonesia) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak onaylad\u0131. Damayanti, 2027 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %5,2\u2013%6,0 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltti; \u00fcst bant 2012\u2019den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/IDR\u2019nin 17.810\u2019a do\u011fru t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/IDR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endonezya Rupisi, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar nedeniyle ciddi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; bu da klasik (vanilla) call\u2019lar\u0131 veya call spread\u2019leri s\u00f6z konusu para birimi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in etkin k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, bu parite \u00f6nemli psikolojik e\u015fikleri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda volatilite h\u0131zla y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor; bu da uzun volatilite stratejilerini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,80 ile \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. S\u00fcregelen enflasyon endi\u015feleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak veya \u201cpayer swap\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131na girmek daha y\u00fcksek faizlere pozisyon almak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a i\u015flevsel bir y\u00f6ntem. Yakla\u015fan ADP ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verilerinin diren\u00e7li bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi halinde getiriler, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %5,0 tepesine do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckselebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara yakla\u015fmas\u0131, enerji call opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu petrol \u015foku, k\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentilerini y\u00fckseltirken enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 geli\u015fen piyasalardan sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Brent petrolde bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri kullanmak, jeopolitik arz kesintilerinden kazan\u00e7 elde ederken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7inde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki h\u0131zlanma ve %6,0\u2019l\u0131k iyimser b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri, Bank Indonesia\u2019y\u0131 Rupiah\u2019\u0131 savunmak i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na zorlayabilir. Buna haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak Endonezya Faiz Swap\u2019lar\u0131nda (IRS) \u201cpaid\u201d taraf\u0131nda pozisyon al\u0131narak y\u00fckselen yurti\u00e7i getirilerden faydalan\u0131labilir. Ancak t\u00fcm k\u0131sa-Rupiah pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri korunmal\u0131; zira ani merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri yerel para biriminde sert fakat ge\u00e7ici toparlanmalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 Rupiah\u2019\u0131 eziyor: USD\/IDR 17.810\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131rken ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,80 ve petrol 90$\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kritik istihdam verilerine kilitledi. Bank Indonesia\u2019da Damayanti d\u00f6nemiyle enflasyon ve faiz bask\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t