Societe Generale art\u0131k RBI\u2019nin repo faizini toplamda 75 baz puan art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bunun \u00fc\u00e7 adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini ve faizin 5,25\u2019ten 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar %6,00\u2019a y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka daha \u00f6nce iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Revizyon, beklentileri a\u015fan Hindistan GSYH verileri ile daha \u015fahin bir Fed duru\u015funun ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu iki unsur birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f istikrara odaklanmay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ekonominin RBI\u2019nin FY27 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini olan %6,7\u2019nin ima etti\u011finden daha az at\u0131l kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsay\u0131yor; bu da ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n alg\u0131lanan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca mevcut g\u0131da, yak\u0131t ve girdi maliyeti bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona yans\u0131ma riskini dikkate al\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc, reel politika faizi tamponunu yeniden olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in yetersiz g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve yeni patika Ekim, Aral\u0131k ve \u015eubat toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda art arda 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan ekonomisinin ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir g\u00fc\u00e7 sergilemesi ve Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerinin portf\u00f6ylerini derhal yeniden konumland\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu Ekim\u2019den ba\u015flayarak art arda \u00fc\u00e7 kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ve repo faizini 5,25\u2019ten 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar %6,00\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, mali y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %6,7 ile beklentileri a\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle destekleniyor ve ekonomide \u00e7ok az at\u0131l kapasite kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle 1 y\u0131l ve 2 y\u0131l vadeli Gecelik Endeksli Swap\u2019larda (OIS) sabit faiz \u00f6denmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 2022 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde, k\u0131sa vadeli swap faizleri h\u0131zla y\u00fcksek bir primi fiyatlayarak, fiili politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce 150 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. G\u0131da ve girdi maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle enflasyon riskleri t\u0131rman\u0131rken, bu k\u0131sa vadeli swap getirilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fckselen getirilerin tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi beklentisiyle devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6neriyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde %6,85 civar\u0131nda seyreden g\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisi, yurti\u00e7i ve k\u00fcresel parasal ko\u015fullar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir. Ekim politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde uzun tahvil portf\u00f6ylerinin \u015fimdi hedge edilmesi, yakla\u015fan fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, kur t\u00fcrevlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Hindistan Rupisi\u2019nde uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Daha y\u00fcksek bir reel politika faizi tamponu, Hindistan varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha cazip hale getirerek para birimini d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 koruyacakt\u0131r. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda, yerelde proaktif bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc USD\/INR kurunu istikrara kavu\u015fturmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir; parite son d\u00f6nemde 83,80 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz revizyon: SocGen, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Hindistan b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve \u015fahin Fed sonras\u0131 RBI\u2019den toplam 75 bp art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. Repo %5,25\u2019ten %6,00\u2019a; Ekim-Aral\u0131k-\u015eubat 25\u2019er bp. OIS\u2019te sabit \u00f6de, tahvil short, INR long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t