Rupi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na 94,90 civar\u0131nda genel olarak yatay a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen iki ayl\u0131k dip seviye olan 94,80\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelece\u011fi beklentileriyle dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi etkili oldu. Dolar Endeksi %0,13 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,80\u2019e y\u00fckselerek iki haftay\u0131 a\u015fan zirveye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinin 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %67 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in toplam 60 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtildi. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri; y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon projeksiyonlar\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran geriliminden kaynaklanan kesinti riskleriyle desteklendi. Al Jazeera\u2019nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kpler verilerine g\u00f6re, gemilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fi 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 14 iken 5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte birini ta\u015f\u0131yan bo\u011fazdan ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Trump, ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n deniz may\u0131n\u0131 yerle\u015ftirme giri\u015fimi iddias\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fini ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki bir \u00fcss\u00fcn sekiz f\u00fczeyi engelledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar ABD istihdam verilerini bekliyor. ADP verisinin 12:15 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenirken, tahminler A\u011fustos\u2019ta 48 bin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na (Temmuz: 44 bin) i\u015faret ediyor; bunu Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi izleyecek. Hindistan taraf\u0131nda Standard Chartered, 1\u00c7-MY27 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %7,8 ile %7,3\u2019l\u00fck konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00fczerinde gelmesini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek MY27 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %6,6\u2019dan %7,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Banka, 2\u00c7-MY27 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini daha \u00f6nceki %6,6 tahminine k\u0131yasla %7,4 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 2Y-MY27 i\u00e7in %6,5\u2019ten %6,7\u2019ye revize etti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama (EMA) olan 95,41\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken RSI 35 civar\u0131nda; destek 94,80\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 94,15 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/INR paritesinde 94,80 destek seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz; bu iki ayl\u0131k dip seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 94,15\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) zay\u0131f 35 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve spot fiyatlar\u0131n 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,41 taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/INR\u2019de paraya yak\u0131n (at-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak makul bir strateji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak destek korunursa, 95,40 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama (short-covering) rallisi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksakl\u0131klar\u0131na sert tepki verirken; g\u00fcnl\u00fck gemi ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin 14\u2019ten sadece 5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi enerji taraf\u0131ndaki volatilitenin belirgin bi\u00e7imde artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. S\u00fcregelen ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 keskin ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle stratejisi \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu bo\u011fazdaki jeopolitik darbo\u011fazlar, k\u0131sa vadeli petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde primlerin \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %67\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ekonomik temelleri olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) son aylarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 680 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz rezervleri, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara rupi \u00fczerindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir m\u00fcdahale kapasitesi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tampon, 95,80 \u00fczerindeki seviyelerde USD\/INR yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satman\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 bir zaman de\u011feri erimesi (premium decay) getirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Kur vadeli i\u015flemlerinde yak\u0131n vadeli y\u00f6n, bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ADP ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verileriyle belirlenecek; veriler Fed\u2019in \u015fahin patikas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ya da zay\u0131flatabilir. Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam verileri konsens\u00fcs tahminlerini a\u015farsa, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir ABD dolar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131; bu da daha y\u00fcksek teknik seviyelerden USD\/INR\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in uygun bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, zay\u0131f istihdam verileri rupi\u2019de 94,15 destek hedefi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde y\u00fckseli\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi 94,90\u2019da yatay, iki ayl\u0131k dip 94,80\u2019e yak\u0131n. Fed\u2019in %67 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi petrol\u00fc z\u0131plat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler ADP\/NFP\u2019de; USD\/INR\u2019de 94,80 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 94,15.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t