Alt\u0131n, y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n getiri sa\u011flamayan metali bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti. Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %4,81\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselerek Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n Fed ad\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fti: 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te iki olas\u0131l\u0131k atfedilirken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 ihtimali %67 olarak g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak WTI, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde kesinti endi\u015felerinin yeniden artmas\u0131yla 90,78 dolarla be\u015f haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Tahran taraf\u0131ndan f\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki bir ABD \u00fcss\u00fcnde \u00f6nlendi\u011fi bildirilen sekiz f\u00fczeden bahsedildi.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler yakla\u015fan ABD verilerine de \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda; a\u011fustos ay\u0131 ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi verisi 12:15 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Beklenti, temmuzdaki 44 binin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde 48 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Spot i\u015flemlerde XAU\/USD 4.295,45 dolarda; yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.409,75 dolar seviyesindeki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, RSI (14) 44 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. Ayr\u0131ca D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; halihaz\u0131rda 4.295,45 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131 olan 4.409,75 dolar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %4,81\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla, getiri sa\u011flamayan bu metali elde tutman\u0131n cazibesi belirgin bi\u00e7imde azald\u0131. Alt\u0131n bo\u011falar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tabloyu daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131ran unsur ise 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki toplant\u0131da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin %67\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve y\u00fckselen getiriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 put spreadleri (bear put spread) kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011finde, kurumsal sermayenin bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131na kaymas\u0131yla alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 genellikle kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda hedefe sahip put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerden gelir elde edebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 genellikle k\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker; bu da tarihsel olarak merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmaya zorlar. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, daha geni\u015f piyasa enflasyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla WTI vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131n alarak bu enerji s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na yaln\u0131zca iki hafta kalm\u0131\u015fken, beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son CME FedWatch verileri \u015fahin (hawkish) bahislerde keskin bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; bunun ard\u0131ndan tarihsel olarak k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu faiz t\u00fcrevlerini \u015fimdi i\u015flem yapmak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde getiri hareketlerini yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sert r\u00fczg\u00e2r: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD getirisi %4,81\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131, Fed\u2019in 16 Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %67\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen petrol (WTI 90,78$) bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, g\u00f6zler ADP verisinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t