Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.330 dolara gerileyerek son iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fcklemesi ve k\u00fcresel tahvil sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesinin ard\u0131ndan getiriler Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Bloomberg, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n misilleme operasyonu dahil olmak \u00fczere ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hamleler bildirildi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Faizlerdeki bu hareket, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n gibi bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rd\u0131. <\/p>\n
\u0130lave bask\u0131, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Jackson Hole\u2019da \u015fahin bir ton kullanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Warsh, enflasyonun %2\u2019ye ikna edici bi\u00e7imde yakla\u015fmamas\u0131 halinde politikan\u0131n yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamay\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Odak \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD A\u011fustos istihdam verilerine \u00e7evrildi; bu veri Eyl\u00fcl beklentilerini \u015fekillendirebilir ve zay\u0131f gelmesi halinde Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131larken, dolar bazl\u0131 emtialar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde spot fiyat 4.365 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 4.445 dolar civar\u0131ndaki Bollinger 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck orta band\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI 46,28 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 4.695 dolarda, destek ise 4.192 dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.330 dolara sert gerilerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 ve ani volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Artan ABD Hazine getirileri ile t\u0131rmanan Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin birle\u015fimi ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, alt\u0131n\u0131 yabanc\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle, XAU\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 reel Hazine getirileriyle yakla\u015f\u0131k -0,4 ila -0,6 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif korelasyon sergiler; bu da getiriler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde metalin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bask\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirilerinin son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla, alt\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti belirgin bi\u00e7imde olumsuz kal\u0131yor. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle bu e\u011filimi yakalamak i\u00e7in, alt hedef olarak 4.192 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen bear put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporu, bir sonraki ana piyasa kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc konumunda. Tarihsel veriler, bu ayl\u0131k istihdam verisinin hemen ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en saatlerde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde dalgalanabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu keskin, haber kaynakl\u0131 fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in Cuma \u00f6ncesinde long straddle stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde, XAU\/USD\u2019nin 4.365 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n ve 4.445 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi nedeniyle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin bi\u00e7imde ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 lehine. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 46,28 seviyesinde; bu, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ancak hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girilmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli olas\u0131 toparlanma denemelerinde, bu dinamik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u201ctavan\u201d (cap) limitleri kurgulamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: XAU\/USD 4.330 dolara inerek iki haftan\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirileri, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve \u015fahin Fed alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t