Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ), Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasa beklentilerine paralel \u015fekilde Resmi Nakit Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OCR) 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,50\u2019den %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. A\u00e7\u0131klama 02:00 GMT\u2019de yay\u0131mlan\u0131rken bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 03:00 GMT\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. Para Politikas\u0131 De\u011ferlendirmesi\u2019nde komite, enflasyonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam\u0131 desteklerken %2 hedef orta noktas\u0131na geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in parasal te\u015fvikin kademeli olarak geri \u00e7ekilmesini uygun g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti; bununla birlikte gelecekteki OCR patikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceden belirlenmedi\u011fini ve zamanlaman\u0131n son derece belirsizli\u011fini korudu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Banka, Haziran \u00e7eyre\u011findeki zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan toparlanman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak toparlanman\u0131n d\u00fczensiz seyretti\u011fini; \u00f6zellikle i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda at\u0131l kapasitenin s\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011funu, ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmesinin ve toparlanman\u0131n tabana yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n\n
Projeksiyonlarda RBNZ, OCR\u2019nin Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019da %2,81 (\u00f6nceki %2,84), Eyl\u00fcl 2027\u2019de %3,12 ( %3,11) ve Aral\u0131k 2027\u2019de %3,15 ( %3,15) seviyesinde olmas\u0131n\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl 2029\u2019da ise %3,28\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca TWI NZD\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl 2027\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 66,9 (66,6) ve y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl 2027 itibar\u0131yla %2,4 ( %2,0) olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan NZD\/USD 0,5857 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,58 geriledi. Daha \u00f6nceki veriler, Haziran \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun %4,1 ile %3,9\u2019luk tahminin \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fini ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %5,6 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, merkezin %2,75\u2019e y\u00f6nelik temkinli faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f tamamen bekleniyordu; ancak politika metni, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck patikan\u0131n belirsiz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek NZD\/USD paritesinin 0,5850\u2019ye do\u011fru gerilemesine neden oldu. Bu \u201cizle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini so\u011futaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Kur opsiyonlar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, NZD\/USD paritesinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc hedeflemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur, 0,5845 civar\u0131nda bulunan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131na yak\u0131n kritik deste\u011fi test ediyor; bu seviye k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tarihsel olarak daha derin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015ftir. Bu teknik tabanlar\u0131n tutunamamas\u0131 halinde, kurun 0,5819\u2019daki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri \u00e7ekilmesi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz swap piyasas\u0131nda, Ekim\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeliyiz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcncellenen tahmini, g\u00f6sterge faizin Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar yaln\u0131zca %2,81\u2019e gelmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da bu y\u0131l ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7in neredeyse hi\u00e7 alan b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %5,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi\u011fi yumu\u015fak i\u00e7 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm anlaml\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ihracata dayal\u0131 ekonomisi y\u00fcksek k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel emtia e\u011filimlerini de yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Son Global Dairy Trade verileri s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131nda %2,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti; bu geli\u015fme geleneksel olarak Kiwi dolara olan talebi zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Mevcut ko\u015fullarda NZD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131rken USD kontratlar\u0131 almak, olduk\u00e7a cazip bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" RBNZ, OCR\u2019yi beklendi\u011fi gibi 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131p %2,75\u2019e \u00e7ekti; ancak \u201cpatika belirsiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 NZD\u2019yi bask\u0131lad\u0131. Projeksiyonlar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma; NZD\/USD 0,5850 deste\u011fi kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t