OCBC, Asya d\u00f6viz tahminlerini ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir patikaya revize ederken, en belirgin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellemeleri G\u00fcney Kore wonu (KRW) ve Malezya ringgiti (MYR) i\u00e7in yapt\u0131. De\u011fi\u015fiklikler, son piyasa hareketleri ile son birka\u00e7 haftada altta yatan FX dinamiklerindeki kaymalar\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor; G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 temel g\u00f6stergeler, ihracat\u00e7\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 d\u00f6viz ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme ve sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dair endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; Malezya\u2019da banka, diren\u00e7li b\u00fcy\u00fcme, destekleyici d\u0131\u015f dengeler, azalan siyasi g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc ve FX giri\u015flerini te\u015fvik etmeye y\u00f6nelik daha erken at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlara dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, Asya para birimlerinde tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketten ziyade ayr\u0131\u015fan bir performans beklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Olas\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131 ve boyutunun; \u00fclke bazl\u0131 temel g\u00f6stergeler, para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu ve fon ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, tahvil getirilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimler ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k gibi d\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fkenlere ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Haber, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Malezya Ringgiti (MYR) ve G\u00fcney Kore Wonu\u2019nda (KRW) g\u00fc\u00e7lenme beklentisiyle t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Asya para birimlerini tek bir blok olarak ele almak yerine, \u00fclkeye \u00f6zg\u00fc bu getirileri yakalamak i\u00e7in \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmi\u015f opsiyon ve vadeli (forward) s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu se\u00e7ici yakla\u015f\u0131m, b\u00f6lgede \u015fu anda g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz de\u011fi\u015fen makroekonomik itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerden faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Malezya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik ivmesi bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; son veriler GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,0 civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015flerine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca Bank Negara Malaysia\u2019n\u0131n kamu destekli \u015firketleri yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fclkeye geri getirmeye te\u015fvik eden koordineli ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n, Ringgit\u2019i son aylar\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerine yak\u0131n bir bantta tutmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu istikrardan, Ringgit\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini koruyaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle USD\/MYR yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satarak prim toplay\u0131p faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Kore taraf\u0131nda, son aylarda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde artan yar\u0131 iletken ihracat\u0131ndaki sert toparlanma, \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde iyile\u015ftirdi. \u0130hracat \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bu toparlanma ve yurti\u00e7i sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki gerileme, Won i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel zemin olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131 ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 temizlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle olu\u015fan bu ivmeden yararlanmak ad\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/KRW put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Asya FX\u2019te son derece par\u00e7al\u0131 bir performans bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n geni\u015f sepetli geli\u015fen piyasa (EM) proxy\u2019lerinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131p bunun yerine g\u00f6reli de\u011fer paritelerine odaklanmas\u0131 gerekir. Varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75\u201380 dolar band\u0131nda dalgalanan Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimler gibi d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rler, Malezya gibi enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ile enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fan patikalar yaratacakt\u0131r. MYR\u2019yi daha zay\u0131f b\u00f6lgesel benzerlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzunlamak gibi \u00e7apraz d\u00f6viz kurgular\u0131 olu\u015fturarak, bu yerel g\u00fc\u00e7 unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 daha iyi izole edebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" OCBC, Asya FX tahminlerini USD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye \u00e7ekti; en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f KRW ve MYR\u2019de. Gerek\u00e7e: Kore\u2019de ihracat\/ak\u0131mlar, Malezya\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme-d\u0131\u015f denge ve siyasi sakinle\u015fme; se\u00e7ici t\u00fcrev \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t