Rabobank stratejistleri, ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n \u0130ran ve Venezuela ile ticari ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 hedef almas\u0131 ve politika engellerinin \u00c7in ihracat\u0131na s\u00fcrt\u00fcnme eklemesiyle, \u00c7in\u2019in ticaret odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinde artan bir zorlanma tarif etti. K\u00fcresel GSYH\u2019nin %1\u2019ine denk geldi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenen bir ticaret fazlas\u0131na, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talebin e\u015flik etti\u011fine i\u015faret ettiler. Resmi PMI verileri imalatta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma, ancak imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rde daha fazla zay\u0131flama g\u00f6sterdi; her iki endeksin de daralma\u2013geni\u015fleme e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihra\u00e7 edilebilir fazlayla ba\u015f ba\u015fa kalabilece\u011fi veya resmi b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerini peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Ard\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan resmi olmayan PMI okumalar\u0131 ise imalat\u0131n geni\u015fledi\u011fine ve bunun ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin beklentisinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret etti; do\u011fruysa bu tablo, i\u00e7 talep ile d\u0131\u015f arz aras\u0131ndaki dengesizli\u011fi daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. Do\u011fru de\u011filse, \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m; ticaret engelleri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a ihracat motorunun bizzat kendisinin teklemeye ba\u015flayabilece\u011fidir. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Ursula von der Leyen\u2019in, AB\u2019nin \u00c7in ile rekor d\u00fczeye ula\u015fan ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 halinde, anti-zorlama arac\u0131 dahil d\u00fczenleyici ara\u00e7lar\u0131n kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, AB kaynakl\u0131 politika riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel ticaret engelleri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rken ve i\u00e7 talep durgun kalmaya devam ederken, \u00c7in\u2019in ihracata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda buna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, zay\u0131flayan \u00c7in yuan\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ticaret gerilimleri t\u0131rmand\u0131k\u00e7a yuan \u00fczerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 belirginle\u015fir; \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in\u2019in ticaret fazlas\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde rekor seviyeye yak\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi faaliyetlerine y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren petrol ve bak\u0131r gibi end\u00fcstriyel metaller ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere emtia t\u00fcrevlerine de bakmak gerekiyor. \u0130ran ve Venezuela\u2019dan \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sistematik bi\u00e7imde kesilmesi, tedarik zincirlerini bozarak enerji piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, d\u00fczenleme kaynakl\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin, tarihsel olarak 300 milyar avroyu a\u015fan bir ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenleyici ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanma tehdidinde bulunmas\u0131yla, k\u00fcresel hisse endeksleri belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Portf\u00f6yleri ani ticaret politikas\u0131 duyurular\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerde ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, yakla\u015fan d\u00fczenleyici f\u0131rt\u0131nay\u0131 h\u00e2len yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor; bu da uzun volatilite stratejilerini \u015fu an i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ticaret engelleri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor: Rabobank, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep ve rekor fazla ile \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Strateji: USD\/CNH call, petrol straddle, FXI put ile korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50084,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t