{"id":53525,"date":"2026-09-02T01:26:50","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T01:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/macaristanin-2-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesi-tuketimin-yatirim-ve-ihracati-geride-birakmasiyla-forint-risklerini-gizliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-02T01:26:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T01:26:50","slug":"macaristanin-2-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesi-tuketimin-yatirim-ve-ihracati-geride-birakmasiyla-forint-risklerini-gizliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/macaristanin-2-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesi-tuketimin-yatirim-ve-ihracati-geride-birakmasiyla-forint-risklerini-gizliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Macaristan\u2019\u0131n 2. \u00c7eyrek GSYH B\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, T\u00fcketimin Yat\u0131r\u0131m ve \u0130hracat\u0131 Geride B\u0131rakmas\u0131yla Forint Risklerini Gizliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Macaristan\u2019\u0131n GSYH\u2019si ikinci \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,5, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131; bu, kademeli bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret ederken, yap\u0131sal fakt\u00f6rlerin toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. ING ekonomistleri 2026 i\u00e7in %1,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; artan reel harcanabilir gelir ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin deste\u011fiyle hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin ana b\u00fcy\u00fcme motoru olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, zay\u0131f yat\u0131r\u0131m ve daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 net ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak; buna ek olarak uzun vadeli demografik bask\u0131lar ve dura\u011fan bir sermaye stoku \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, k\u0131smen \u00f6nceki h\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u00f6neminde ba\u015flat\u0131lan projelere y\u00f6nelik incelemeler ve ask\u0131ya almalar nedeniyle bask\u0131lan\u0131yor; ancak AB fonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonu verilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 halinde aktivite y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde toparlanabilir. \u0130hracat performans\u0131 jeopolitik belirsizlik, daha y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim maliyetleri ve olas\u0131 tedarik kesintileri nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilirken, net ihracat\u0131n 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ING ayr\u0131ca n\u00fckleer enerji krizine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ticaret dengesinde negatif bir etkiye dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Daha ileride, 2027\u20132028 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,0 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f talebe ba\u011fl\u0131 olmakla birlikte, neredeyse d\u00f6rt y\u0131la yakla\u015fan sermaye stoku durgunlu\u011fu ve bozulan demografik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn ima etti\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n

Kur G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Ve Para Politikas\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Macar Forinti\u2019nin yeniden de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da uzun EUR\/HUF opsiyon stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olsa da, bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte enerji ithalat\u0131ndan kaynaklanan geni\u015fleyen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla dengeleniyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, EUR\/HUF paritesinde 405\u2013410 band\u0131na do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir kaymaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in EUR\/HUF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n

Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in politika faizini %6,5 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seviyede tutmas\u0131 muhtemel. Mevcut ko\u015fullarda 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k Budape\u015fte Bankalararas\u0131 Teklif Faizi (BUBOR) faiz swaplar\u0131nda \u201cpay\u201d taraf\u0131nda yer alman\u0131n risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yurt i\u00e7i hizmet enflasyonunu yap\u0131\u015fkan tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir y\u00f6ne kaymas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Sabit Getirili Menkul K\u0131ymetler Ve Hisse Senedi Piyasas\u0131 Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Buna ek olarak, Macaristan\u2019\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri %6,7 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da derin yap\u0131sal r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar ve zay\u0131f yerel yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesine oynayan i\u015flemlere girilmesini; uzun vadeli tahvillerde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131rken k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu konumlanma, Avrupa Birli\u011fi fon giri\u015flerindeki gecikmeden faydalan\u0131r; s\u00f6z konusu gecikme y\u0131l sonuna kadar mali bask\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, zay\u0131f sanayi ihracat\u0131n\u0131n \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 BUX hisse endeksi \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Avrupa\u2019da imalat talebinin zay\u0131f seyri s\u00fcrerken ve Macaristan\u2019\u0131n ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc tedarik darbo\u011fazlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yayken, sanayi \u015firketleri daralan k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o sezonu ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce hisse portf\u00f6ylerini hedge etmek, ihracat kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Macaristan\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme toparlan\u0131yor: 2\u00c7\u2019de GSYH %0,5 \u00e7\/\u00e7, %1,7 y\/y. ING 2026\u2019da %1,7 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; t\u00fcketim desteklerken yat\u0131r\u0131m, ihracat, demografi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; forintte zay\u0131flama, temkinli MB politikas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t