NZD\/USD sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5900 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken %0,24 geriledi; ABD Dolar\u0131, kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD verilerinin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. ISM \u0130malat PMI, temmuzdaki 55,6 seviyesinden a\u011fustosta 54,6\u2019ya gerileyerek 55,2\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ancak 50\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Anketin detaylar\u0131nda \u0130stihdam Endeksi 52,8\u2019den 51,2\u2019ye inerken, Yeni Sipari\u015fler 56,7\u2019den 53,7\u2019ye geriledi; \u00d6denen Fiyatlar Endeksi ise 71,1\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131 olarak, BLS verileri JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n temmuzda 7,182 milyondan 7,271 milyona y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, ancak 7,3 milyonluk beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; i\u015fe al\u0131mlar ve toplam ayr\u0131lmalar 5,1 milyon seviyesinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi. ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,65 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, NZD\/USD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc. G\u00f6zler \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc RBNZ karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Piyasalar 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla faizin %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi de\u011ferlendiriyor. Mevcut fiyatlama, Haziran 2027\u2019ye kadar toplam 95 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ima ederken; projeksiyonlar, daha yumu\u015fak petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck T\u00dcFE tahminleriyle birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
NZD\/USD paritesi bug\u00fcn kritik 0,5900 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkat \u00e7ekici bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2019de baz\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerde yumu\u015fama g\u00f6zlense de ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,65 civar\u0131nda kayda de\u011fer bir diren\u00e7 sergiliyor; 54,6 seviyesindeki imalat PMI da bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekliyor. Dolardaki bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) yar\u0131n politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi beklenirken, piyasan\u0131n 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar 95 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu uyumsuzluktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden yararlanmak ad\u0131na kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,5900\u2019\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda olan k\u0131sa vadeli NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar; merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha g\u00fcvercin bir mesaj vermesi halinde sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na maruz kalma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentimiz k\u00fcresel emtia e\u011filimleriyle de destekleniyor. Uluslararas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde gerilerken, Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 72 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Enerji maliyetlerindeki bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etmeye itmesi ve agresif ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na duyulan aciliyeti azaltmas\u0131 beklenir. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankalar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fahin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yerel para birimi takip eden haftalarda %1,5 ila %2 aras\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Alternatif aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatiliteden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla NZD\/USD\u2019de ay\u0131 call spread (bear call spread) stratejisi de \u00f6neriyoruz. Paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonu sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonu almak, prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n verirken riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutar. Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 0,5950 civar\u0131ndaki son diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa, zaman de\u011feri erimesi lehimize \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131ndan bu strateji istikrarl\u0131 bir getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NZD\/USD 0,5900\u2019da %0,24 d\u00fc\u015ferken DXY 99,65\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; ISM PMI 54,6\u2019ya indi, JOLTS beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6zler RBNZ\u2019de: 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor; put ve bear call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t