Sterlin, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. GBP\/USD paritesi 1,3540 civar\u0131nda ve %0,06 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte seyrederken, ABD\u2019den gelen karma veriler \u015fahin bir Fed beklentilerini canl\u0131 tuttu. A\u011fustos ay\u0131 ISM \u0130malat PMI, Temmuz\u2019daki 55,6 seviyesinden 54,6\u2019ya gerileyerek 55,2\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Temmuz ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin JOLTS raporu ise a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 7,217 milyon olarak g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti 7,3 milyon d\u00fczeyindeydi. ABD\u2019de enflasyon %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ederken, ge\u00e7en hafta yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 masada oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta BRC verileri, perakendecilerin 2024\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u00fckselen enerji, girdi ve emtia maliyetlerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131 veriler ise imalat\u0131n Mart\u2019tan bu yana en yava\u015f h\u0131zda geni\u015fledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re piyasalar, 2026 sonuna kadar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %82 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Grafiklerde spotun 1,3528 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu; 1,3383\u20131,3481 b\u00f6lgesindeki deste\u011fin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. 50\/100\/200 periyotluk SMA k\u00fcmelenmesi 1,3436 civar\u0131nda, RSI 50,8 seviyesinde; diren\u00e7 1,3647 yak\u0131n\u0131nda izleniyor. G\u00fcndemde ABD ISM Hizmet PMI ile Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artmas\u0131 beklenen volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde uzun straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejileriyle pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kritik ABD istihdam verileri yakla\u015f\u0131rken ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015fan b\u00fct\u00e7esine uyum s\u00fcreci devam ederken, sert kur hareketleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Tarihsel olarak, hem Fed\u2019in hem de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu d\u00f6nemler, ani ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez piyasa k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Grafiklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/USD paritesi i\u00e7in 1,3383 ile 1,3481 aras\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir teknik destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu b\u00f6lge, daha geni\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini koruyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha net bir trend olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla 1,3380 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak bu durumdan faydalanabilir. Spot fiyat\u0131n 1,3647\u2019deki yak\u0131n direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde ise al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan yararlanman\u0131n verimli bir yolu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda, 2026 sonuna kadar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %82\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131na yak\u0131ndan bakmak gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6zellikle Catherine Mann\u2019\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek faiz \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak (hedge) amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (futures) k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Benzer \u015fekilde, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede \u201ch\u00e2l\u00e2 yap\u0131lacak i\u015f\u201d oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmesiyle, faiz swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek getirilere oynayan pozisyonlar da rasyonel bir tercih olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin dar bantta: GBP\/USD 1,3540\u2019ta zay\u0131f. Karma ABD verileri Fed \u015fahinli\u011fini besliyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %82. Teknik destek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; volatilitede straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t