GBP\/USD, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa saatlerinde 1,3550 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkarak 1,3545 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015f olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Bu hareket, pariteyi negatif b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131rken ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Greenback\u2019e destek, Jackson Hole sempozyumunda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelen \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Warsh, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole\u2019daki ilk konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, enflasyonun Fed\u2019in y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini vurgulayarak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ana oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yeterli h\u0131zda hedefe geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden emin olmak olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; aksi halde, \u201cyapacak i\u015fimiz var\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini yak\u0131ndan izlerken GBP\/USD\u2019deki k\u0131sa vadeli zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin 1,3550 seviyesinin alt\u0131na son sarkmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonunun ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin sunuyor. Bununla birlikte, parite h\u00e2len 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) \u2014 \u015fu anda 1,3380 civar\u0131nda \u2014 rahat bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tam te\u015fekk\u00fcll\u00fc bir piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczeltme olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta Jackson Hole sempozyumunda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n net duru\u015funun ard\u0131ndan, CME FedWatch verileri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %62 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil getirisini yeniden %4,20 seviyesine do\u011fru iterken, greenback\u2019e k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ivme sa\u011flad\u0131. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu anl\u0131k dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Denklemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini; temmuz ay\u0131nda %3,4 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan yap\u0131\u015fkan (kal\u0131c\u0131) Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun deste\u011fiyle diren\u00e7li kalmaya devam ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n da \u015fahin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde GBP\/USD paritesi eyl\u00fcl i\u015flemlerinde ana hareketli ortalamalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m ilgisi bulma e\u011filiminde oluyor. Bu nedenle, 1,3400 destek seviyesi etraf\u0131nda kurgulanm\u0131\u015f kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyonlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riski etkin y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek bull call spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Spot pozisyonlarda zarar-kes seviyelerinin 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemlerinde beklenmedik de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi koruyacakt\u0131r. Bu dengeli strateji, dolar\u0131n mevcut ivmesinden k\u00e2r elde etmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131rken sterlinin ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini de ka\u00e7\u0131rmamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed\u2019den \u015fahin mesajlar dolar endeksini desteklerken GBP\/USD 1,3550 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Ancak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA \u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: k\u0131sa vadeli put, 1,3400 \u00e7evresinde uzun call\/bull spread stratejileri \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49973,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t