K\u00fcresel faizler, enflasyon endi\u015feleri ve yo\u011fun tahvil arz\u0131n\u0131n getiri e\u011frilerini dikle\u015ftirmesiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Japonya piyasaya y\u00f6n verdi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisi 1996\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez %3,00 seviyesini test ederken, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 %4,78 civar\u0131nda, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 ise %4,35 yak\u0131n\u0131nda kald\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da Bund %3,35, OAT %4,21 ve gilt %5,23 seviyelerinde an\u0131ld\u0131. FX cephesinde hareket getirilere paralel seyretti; USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,9, EUR\/USD ise 1,160\u20131,161 band\u0131ndayd\u0131. Riskli varl\u0131klar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Nikkei %-0,2, KOSPI %+0,2, Hang Seng yakla\u015f\u0131k %-0,9; ABD vadeli i\u015flemleri yataya yak\u0131nd\u0131. Brent yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 art\u0131\u015fla 91,1 dolara, WTI ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 86,5 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Alt\u0131n %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.431 dolara gerilerken, BTC yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,3 art\u0131\u015fla 78,7 bin dolara, ETH ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,3 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 2,47 bin dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik g\u00fcndem H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na odakland\u0131; raporlar, g\u00fcney koridoruna ra\u011fmen tankerlerin vuruldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Kpler, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 14\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k be\u015f emtia ge\u00e7i\u015fi kaydetti; bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri s\u0131v\u0131 tanker de\u011fildi. \u0130fade edilen hedef, eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131na kadar gece ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 gemiydi. Avrupa\u2019da hisse senetleri faiz bask\u0131s\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131: FTSE %-1,16 ile 10.699,05, DAX %-1,22 ile 25.960,39 ve CAC %-0,41 ile 8.300,69 seviyesine indi; STOXX 600 yakla\u015f\u0131k yatay kal\u0131rken enerji hisseleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,4 y\u00fckseldi. Makro verilerde Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI 52,7; Almanya 54,3 ve Fransa 51,1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Almanya\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k %-3,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %-2,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Euro B\u00f6lgesi T\u00dcFE tahmini y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,4 olurken i\u015fsizlik %6,4 seviyesinde a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u015eirket\/ sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131nda Novartis %+5,5, Air Liquide %+3,5; Partners Group H1 atfedilebilir k\u00e2r\u0131n %-13 gelmesiyle %-7,0; Micron\u2019da Tayvan\u2019daki (yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 bin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131n neredeyse 10 binini temsil eden) sendikalar i\u00e7inde %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 grev eylemine destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131nda Anthropic\u2019in 35 milyar dolarl\u0131k Lambda kontrat\u0131, daha \u00f6nceki yap\u0131ya benzer \u015fekilde 15 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 19,6 milyar dolarl\u0131k taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn (yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kabilecek) devam\u0131 niteli\u011findeydi; Anthropic\u2019in yeni hesaplama taahh\u00fctleri bir haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 milyar dolar olarak verildi. Zhipu ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 bin yerli h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 \u00fczerinde alt\u0131 g\u00fcnde 60 trilyon+ token \u00fcretildi\u011fini; token ba\u015f\u0131 maliyetin YB\u2019den bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve performans\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 kat artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ayr\u0131ca a\u011fustos sonu itibar\u0131yla 1,6 milyar dolar ARR\u2019ye ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (son haftan\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131rman\u0131n 2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde) belirtti.<\/p>\n\n
K\u00fcresel sabit getirili piyasada yap\u0131sal bir de\u011fi\u015fime tan\u0131kl\u0131k ediyoruz; Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 1996\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez %3,0\u2019a dokunmas\u0131 ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvillerinin %4,78 civar\u0131nda tutunmas\u0131 bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak veya daha y\u00fcksek nihai faiz oranlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in payer swaption sat\u0131n alarak k\u00fcresel getirilere y\u00f6nelik kal\u0131c\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel veriler, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n sabit getiride s\u0131kl\u0131kla uzun vadeli trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d rejimine haz\u0131rl\u0131k en acil \u00f6nceli\u011fimiz.<\/p>\n\n
Japon Yeni, G20\u2019de politika ad\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallerin ard\u0131ndan, \u00f6zellikle USD\/JPY\u2019nin kritik 160 seviyesi civar\u0131nda gezinmesiyle, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmesiyle Yen\u2019de olas\u0131 sert de\u011ferlenmeyi yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de out-of-the-money put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 1985 Plaza Anla\u015fmas\u0131 gibi tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, eyl\u00fcl\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck kur rejimi de\u011fi\u015fimleri i\u00e7in klasik bir pencere oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131rken, mevcut pozisyonlanma k\u0131sa Yen i\u015flemlerinde ciddi bir \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d riskine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki artan gerilim, emtia ge\u00e7i\u015flerini son d\u00f6nemdeki 14 gemilik ortalamaya k\u0131yasla g\u00fcnde yaln\u0131zca be\u015f gemiye kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Deniz yollar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7man\u0131n beklenenden \u00e7ok daha zor oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bu arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Brent ve WTI\u2019da uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmal\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa\u2019da y\u00fcksek do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck depolama seviyeleri, enflasyon ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 swaplar \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yaparak enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n uzamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Micron\u2019un Tayvan tesislerinde, kritik y\u00fcksek bant geni\u015flikli bellek (HBM) kapasitesini kontrol eden birimlerde yakla\u015fan grev tehdidi, eyl\u00fcl sonundaki bilan\u00e7o sezonu \u00f6ncesinde yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ciddi volatilite enjekte edebilir. Bu tedarik zinciri kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yapay zek\u00e2 donan\u0131m kiralamalar\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki giderek karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015fan finansman yap\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, teknoloji endekslerinde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle\u2019lar veya endeks put\u2019lar\u0131 ile korunma \u00f6nerilir. Teknoloji de\u011ferlemeleri hem y\u00fckselen iskonto oranlar\u0131na hem de donan\u0131m darbo\u011fazlar\u0131na y\u00fcksek hassasiyet g\u00f6sterirken, hisse senedi riskimizi volatilite bazl\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerle korumak kritik bir defansif ad\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Tahvil cephesinde \u201cyukar\u0131 rejim\u201d g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: JGB 10Y %3\u2019\u00fc test etti, ABD 10Y %4,78\u2019de. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc 91$\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131rken riskli varl\u0131klar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, Yen 160 e\u015fi\u011finde kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t