ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc iki haftay\u0131 a\u015fan zirveden ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmenin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc telafi etmesinin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden art\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7ti. Erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 99,00 seviyelerinin orta band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckselen endekse; Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un \u015fahin tondaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon riski ve t\u0131rmanan ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rmas\u0131 destek verdi.<\/p>\n
Teknik sinyaller ise kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k: MACD hafif\u00e7e pozitife d\u00f6nerken, RSI 50\u2019deki n\u00f6tr seviyenin etraf\u0131nda seyretti ve net bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden ziyade istikrara i\u015faret etti. Diren\u00e7 99,70-99,75 band\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor; burada 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA, Temmuz-A\u011fustos d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesiyle kesi\u015fiyor. Yukar\u0131da ilave engeller 100,07 ve 100,44 seviyelerinde; daha yukar\u0131da ise Fibonacci kaynakl\u0131 tavanlar 100,95 ve 101,61\u2019de bulunuyor. \u0130lk destek 99,26\u2019da, daha derin taban ise d\u00f6ng\u00fc dip seviyesine yak\u0131n 98,54\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019ya girerken, DXY\u2019nin 99,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeks; Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelen \u015fahin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyalleri ve t\u0131rmanan ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin besledi\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle ivme kazan\u0131yor. De\u011fi\u015fen bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyon portf\u00f6ylerimizde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc dolar stratejilerine daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla artan enerji maliyetleri destekliyor; bu durum tarihsel olarak enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutarak merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fahin kalmaya zorluyor. Ayr\u0131ca fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, yakla\u015fan Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %64\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %35 seviyesindeydi. Mevsimsellik de bu tabloyu destekliyor: Dolar, son on y\u0131l\u0131n sekizinde Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapatt\u0131 ve ay genelinde ortalama %1,2 getiri sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, DXY\u2019nin 99,70-99,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 k\u00fcmesi \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ba\u015faba\u015f (near-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread (bull call spread) stratejisinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu kritik bariyer, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) ile \u00f6nemli bir Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesine denk geliyor. Burada net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, endeksi muhtemelen h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde bir sonraki hedefler olan 100,07 ve 100,44 seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Endeks \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bu direnci a\u015famazsa, 99,26\u2019daki sa\u011flam destek zemininin hemen \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fine ge\u00e7ilebilir. D\u00f6ng\u00fc dibi olan 98,54 seviyesi, t\u00fcm y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in mutlak \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve yakla\u015fan enerji verilerinin yaratabilece\u011fi sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131nda daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ilerlemek i\u00e7in pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY yeniden art\u0131da: Warsh\u2019un \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131, 85$ \u00fcst\u00fc petrol ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (%64) beklentisini y\u00fckseltti. 99,70-99,75 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa call\/call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t