Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olarak tan\u0131mlanan 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndan gelen toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geriledi. Jackson Hole\u2019da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentilerini yeniden canland\u0131rarak, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131yla birlikte getiri sa\u011flamayan k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi bask\u0131lad\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla enerji fiyatlar\u0131 da y\u00fckseldi ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini peki\u015ftirdi. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch Arac\u0131 ise piyasalar\u0131n 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ISM \u0130malat PMI ve JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 verilerini, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu \u00f6ncesinde yak\u0131ndan izliyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik g\u00fcndem, ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u0130ran\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 Larak Adas\u0131\u2019nda iki roket rampas\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, Temmuz sonundan bu yana ilk ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 oldu. \u0130ran, \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki Amerikan hava \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi ve Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullanarak BAE\u2019deki Al Minhad Hava \u00dcss\u00fc\u2019n\u00fc vurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ise daha ileri ad\u0131mlar\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Teknik olarak parite 100 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve RSI 34,80 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7ler 4.481 ve 4.532 dolar civar\u0131nda, bunun \u00fczerinde 4.697 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; destekler ise 4.430, 4.348, 4.266 ve ard\u0131ndan 4.149 ile 3.999 dolar seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin para politikas\u0131 endi\u015felerinin metali bask\u0131lamas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131nda (XAU\/USD) ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. CME FedWatch Arac\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 g\u00f6stermesi, k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, agresif 2022 Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc s\u0131ras\u0131nda %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti; bu da varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine ne kadar duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Ani piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ham petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun pozisyonlar da de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma, tipik olarak enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131r; tarihsel olarak bu durum petrol\u00fc birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %5 ila %10 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu t\u00fcr bir ortam, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekleyerek alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r ve USD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir savunma arac\u0131 haline getirir.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk etapta 4.430 dolar seviyesindeki deste\u011fin izlenmesi gerekiyor; bu seviye %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Alt\u0131n bu noktan\u0131n alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde sarkarsa, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 4.348 ve 4.266 dolar hedeflerine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131. Ancak G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 34,80 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yak\u0131n oldu\u011fundan, piyasay\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmal\u0131; bunun yerine k\u0131sa pozisyonlara giri\u015f i\u00e7in k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri beklenmeli.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta, ISM \u0130malat PMI ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu dahil yakla\u015fan ABD makro veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli kal\u0131nmal\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Tarihsel veriler, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam raporlar\u0131n\u0131n dakikalar i\u00e7inde alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda d\u00fczenli olarak %1,5 ila %2\u2019lik oynakl\u0131k yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da dar stop-loss seviyelerini kolayca \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k penceresinde geni\u015f stoplar veya yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon spread\u2019leri kullanarak riskleri y\u00f6netmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 ve %65 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc y\u00fckseltti. Teknik zay\u0131f; 4.430 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.348-4.266 hedef. ISM\/NFP kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t