GBP\/USD G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u00d6nemli Teknik Seviyeler<\/p>\n\n
GBP\/USD Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3550 civar\u0131nda seyretti; art arda \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn pariteyi 1,3700\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndaki alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesinden bir sentten fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan hafif toparland\u0131. Parite, 1,3500\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 1,3400 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI 90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 82\u2019ye geriledi. Planl\u0131 bir Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k veya ABD veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle i\u015flemler 35 piplik dar bantta kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD\u2019nin Larak Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki \u0130ran roket rampalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesi Brent\/ham petrol\u00fc %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseltirken, uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini de yukar\u0131 itti; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n Temmuz T\u00dcFE enflasyonu %2,9 oldu.<\/p>\n\n
BoE, 30 Temmuz\u2019da politika faizini 6\u2019ya 3 oyla %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu; muhalif \u00fcyeler %4,00\u2019\u00fc tercih etti ve bankan\u0131n merkez projeksiyonu enflasyonun 4\u00c7\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,2 ile zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; piyasalar 17 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201csabit\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor. Jackson Hole sonras\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemler, Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65, Ekim\u2019i %92 ve Aral\u0131k\u2019\u0131 bir veya iki art\u0131r\u0131m aras\u0131nda neredeyse ba\u015fa ba\u015f ima ediyor; 29 Temmuz FOMC oylamas\u0131 9\u2019a 3 \u201csabit\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. ABD\u2019de veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM \u0130malat PMI (beklenti 55,2; \u00f6nceki 55,6), \u00f6denen fiyatlar (72; \u00f6nceki 71,1) ve JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 (7,3 milyon) ile yeniden ba\u015fl\u0131yor; \u00c7ar\u015famba \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (47 bin) ve Cuma Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (58 bin; \u00f6nceki -23 bin), i\u015fsizlik %4,1 ve saatlik kazan\u00e7lar ayl\u0131k %0,3 izlenecek. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler diren\u00e7te 1,3600, ard\u0131ndan 1,3700\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131 ve 1,3750; destekte 1,3500, ard\u0131ndan 1,3450 ve 1,3400 olarak belirtilirken, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015fta 1,3600 \u00fczeri senaryoyu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Sterlin\u2019in ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 en cazip se\u00e7enek haline getiriyor. Parite \u015fu anda 1,3550 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm do\u011frudan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu kritik 1,3500 destek seviyesinin test edilmesine i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesi olan 90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinden 82\u2019ye d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu teyit eder nitelikte.<\/p>\n\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 dinamiklerinde belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: Dolar\u0131n \u015fahin momentumu, Sterlin\u2019in durgun hik\u00e2yesine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r bas\u0131yor. Hem \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 hem de ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 komitelerinde \u00fc\u00e7er \u015fahin muhalif \u00fcye bulunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, piyasalar Jackson Hole sempozyumu sonras\u0131nda Fed\u2019in ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131 agresif \u015fekilde fiyatl\u0131yor. CME FedWatch verileri, yakla\u015fan ABD Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %65\u2019e oturdu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, BoE\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 %3,75\u2019te \u201csabit\u201d beklentisiyle net bi\u00e7imde fiyatlanmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler de g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri \u00fczerinden dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki son askeri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hamleler, Larak Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar dahil, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131rd\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Tarihsel olarak enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama d\u00f6nemleri, enerji ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek olan ABD ekonomisini Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019a k\u0131yasla avantajl\u0131 k\u0131lar; \u00fcstelik Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta T\u00dcFE enflasyonu h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda rahats\u0131z edici \u015fekilde %2,9 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n
Opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131ndaki stratejiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 1,3500 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanmay\u0131; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f baz\u0131nda 1,3600\u2019\u00fc ise kat\u0131 bir ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesi olarak kullanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu haftan\u0131n yo\u011fun ABD takvimi\u2014ISM \u0130malat PMI, JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ve kritik Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu\u2014pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilecek kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc sa\u011flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Asimetrik ve dolar odakl\u0131 bu momentumdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya vadeli tarafta k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131da: GBP\/USD 1,3550\u2019de, hedef 1,3500 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin fiyatlamas\u0131 (Eyl\u00fclde %65 art\u0131\u015f) BoE\u2019nin \u201csabit\u201d duru\u015funu g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor; ABD verileri kataliz\u00f6r. Diren\u00e7 1,3600.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t