Meksika pesosu Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,20 de\u011fer kazand\u0131; USD\/MXN 17,04 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 16,99\u2019a geriledi. ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesine ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 beklentileriyle ABD tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesine ra\u011fmen parite a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretti. ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) 85,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131n ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, FX piyasalar\u0131nda \u201cye\u015fil para\u201dda genele yay\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta hareket ters y\u00f6ndeydi: Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 USD\/MXN\u2019i %0,38 y\u00fckselterek Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 17,03 kapan\u0131\u015fa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; olas\u0131l\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %65. Odak \u015fimdi ABD ISM \u0130malat ve Hizmet PMI verileri ile A\u011fustos Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u2019a \u00e7evrilirken, Meksika takviminde Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc A\u011fustos T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni ve devam eden USMCA g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta spot 16,9994 ile 17,0838\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trend \u00e7izgisinin ve 17,3004 civar\u0131nda toplanan 50-, 100- ve 200-g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA k\u00fcmesinin alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI 38,8 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 17,08 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 17,30 ve 18,12 seviyeleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/MXN paritesindeki mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz; parite 16,99 seviyeleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 17,30 civar\u0131ndaki kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 38,8 ile negatif b\u00f6lgede ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda olmamas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/MXN sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almaya odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n aniden tersine d\u00f6nmesi halinde s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z risk almadan, paritedeki \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyelere do\u011fru istikrarl\u0131 gerilemeden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %65 olmas\u0131, enflasyon endi\u015feleriyle son d\u00f6nemde %4,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Ancak WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 85,00 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, \u00f6nemli bir petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Meksika\u2019n\u0131n peso a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tampon kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Put opsiyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n maliyetini, 17,08 diren\u00e7 hatt\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak dengeleyebilir; Banxico\u2019nun \u00e7ift haneli faizlerinin destekledi\u011fi y\u00fcksek getirili carry trade ortam\u0131ndan yararlanabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
Kritik USMCA ticaret incelemeleri ve yakla\u015fan Meksika T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisi \u00f6ncesinde son derece temkinli kalmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel ticaret m\u00fczakereleri, \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019nin anla\u015fmay\u0131 kolayca uzatma konusunda isteksiz oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde, politik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerin pesoda g\u00fcnl\u00fck %2 ila %3\u2019l\u00fck hareketleri rahatl\u0131kla tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yakla\u015fan bu riskleri y\u00f6netebilmek i\u00e7in, pozisyonlar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131ndaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hemen sonras\u0131na denk gelecek \u015fekilde k\u0131sa vadeli (short-dated) opsiyonlarla s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petroldeki s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ve \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen peso g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: USD\/MXN 17,04\u2019ten 16,99\u2019a indi. DXY gerilerken sat\u0131\u015f yay\u0131ld\u0131. Teknik bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; strateji: put al, 17,08\u2019de call sat; USMCA\/Fed riskine dikkat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t