ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131ndan reddedildikten sonra 99,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda 0,26% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Seans; ABD\u2019nin Larak Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki \u0130ran f\u0131rlat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131, petrol\u00fcn %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesini ve getiri e\u011frisi genelinde daha y\u00fcksek faizleri i\u00e7ermesine ra\u011fmen, endeks zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden fiyatlad\u0131: Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %35\u2019ten %60 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n faizlerdeki hareket ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde de\u011fil k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; euro b\u00f6lgesi ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ula\u015f\u0131rken, Almanya ve Fransa 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirileri 2024\u2019ten bu yana en iyi seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; petrol\u00fcn 85,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle euro b\u00f6lgesinde uzun vadeli getiriler 15 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere t\u0131rmand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Endeks bile\u015fimi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131: Euro DXY\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %58\u2019ini, yen ise %14\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor; piyasalar Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini %84\u2019e yak\u0131n fiyatl\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Fed\u2019in 16 Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce 9\u201310 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de toplanacak; Japonya ise 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de takip edecek. DXY\u2019de A\u011fustos dip seviyesi olan 98,50 civar\u0131, 19 A\u011fustos\u2019ta uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi A\u011fustos ortas\u0131nda 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ula\u015f\u0131rken, alt\u0131n Ocak\u2019tan bu yana en iyi ay\u0131na y\u00f6neldi. Bu haftan\u0131n ABD verileri aras\u0131nda 14:00 GMT\u2019de ISM imalat (\u00f6denen fiyatlar beklentisi 72, \u00f6nceki 71,1), 12:15 GMT\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (47 bin), ISM hizmetler \u00f6denen fiyatlar (son 70,3) ve Cuma 12:30 GMT\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu yer al\u0131yor; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 23 binlik daralma sonras\u0131 58 bin artmas\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,1 ve kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,1) gelmesi bekleniyor. Teknik seviyeler: diren\u00e7 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 99,75\u2019te; ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00e7evresinde 100,00 ve 100,50. Destek 99,40 civar\u0131nda; sonras\u0131nda 99,00 ve 98,50. Stoch RSI 30\u2019a yak\u0131n; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 100,00 \u00fczerinde gelmesi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) 99,50 \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorlanan ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131ndan net \u015fekilde reddedilen belirgin bir teknik sinyal g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ciddi bir jeopolitik gerilime ve ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, dolar g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7ekmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oluyor. Bu dikkat \u00e7ekici fiyat davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha fazla dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyonlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Sorun \u015fu ki, artan enerji maliyetlerinin besledi\u011fi k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda \u015fahinle\u015fmeye zorluyor. Tarihsel olarak petrol\u00fcn, Brent\u2019in 95 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023 sonu benzeri \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirileri birlikte y\u00fckselir ve Fed\u2019in getiri avantaj\u0131 n\u00f6trle\u015fir. Japonya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri son d\u00f6nemde 31 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine dokunurken ve Avrupa getirileri s\u0131\u00e7rarken, dolar\u0131n benzerlerini geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131 kolay de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n
Euro ve yenin DXY sepetinin %72\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir. ECB ve BoJ i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in dolar temel tarafta dezavantajl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. Bu haftaki euro b\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verilerinin bu e\u011filimi peki\u015ftirmesini ve euro uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getirmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, dolar\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019taki 98,50 civar\u0131ndaki dip seviyesinin Hazine\u2019nin geri al\u0131mlar\u0131yla tetiklenmi\u015f olmas\u0131, y\u00fckselen getirilerin ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7ten ziyade yo\u011fun bor\u00e7 arz\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, ABD 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi Ekim 2023\u2019te 5,05% civar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelerine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mali a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131yla dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu zamanla duraksam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu dinamik daha \u00e7ok bir kredi riski gibi davran\u0131r ve dolar\u0131n geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman i\u015flevini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Dolar almak yerine sermaye alt\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor; alt\u0131n, Ocak\u2019tan bu yana en iyi ayl\u0131k performans\u0131na ilerliyor. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda alt\u0131n\u0131n 2.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem gibi stagflasyonist bask\u0131 ve jeopolitik tansiyonun y\u00fckseldi\u011fi benzer ko\u015fullarda, k\u0131ymetli metaller itibari para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde daha iyi performans sergilemi\u015ftir. Bu g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 USD y\u00fckseli\u015fini kovalamak yerine alt\u0131n al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla ifade etmeyi tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapanlar i\u00e7in, 98,50\u2019deki A\u011fustos dip seviyesini hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla DXY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc satmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde olan EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. 100,00 civar\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya do\u011fru olas\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, 100,00 e\u015fi\u011finin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 bir ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme seviyesi korunarak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik risk ve petrol 85$ \u00fcst\u00fcne ra\u011fmen DXY 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019dan reddedildi, 99,50 alt\u0131na indi. K\u00fcresel faizler y\u00fckselirken Fed avantaj\u0131 eriyor; ECB\/BoJ \u015fahinli\u011fi euro-yeni destekliyor, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t