WTI, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 85,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; yakla\u015f\u0131k 84,00 dolardan a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra %2,5 y\u00fckseldi ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 86,00 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131n\u0131 test ederken A\u011fustos ay\u0131 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leri Larak Adas\u0131\u2019nda iki \u0130ran roket rampas\u0131n\u0131 vurdu; \u0130ran ise \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki iki hava \u00fcss\u00fcne f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fcretim kayb\u0131 bildirilmedi ve kay\u0131p varil teyit edilmedi. Odak, ge\u00e7i\u015f riskine kayd\u0131: ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki hafta uluslararas\u0131 deniz ticaret hatlar\u0131ndaki may\u0131nlar\u0131 temizlemesinin ard\u0131ndan, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr emtia gemilerinin say\u0131s\u0131 hafta sonunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fe d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130ngiliz denizcilik otoriteleri de Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7eri sefer yapan bir tankerin bir m\u00fchimmatla vuruldu\u011funu belirtti. Sava\u015f \u015eubat sonu ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce k\u00fcresel ham petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyordu.<\/p>\n
Kharg Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki hasara ili\u015fkin iddialar ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde do\u011frulanmazken, banka tahminleri K\u00f6rfez ihracat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 15-16 milyon varil d\u00fczeyinde g\u00f6sterdi; bu rakam Mart\u2019taki 5-6 milyon varillik dip seviyeden y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi 22-24 milyon varilin alt\u0131nda. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 kurulu\u015f, ki\u015fi ve gemiyi yapt\u0131r\u0131m listesine ald\u0131; yetkililer de ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131m paketlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k haftal\u0131k s\u0131kl\u0131kla devam edece\u011fi sinyalini verdi. Makro fiyatlama da hareket etti: Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %35\u2019ten %60\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. ISM imalat PMI \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d beklentisi 71,1\u2019den 72\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; hizmetlerde son okuma 70,3 oldu. A\u011fustos istihdam\u0131, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki 23 binlik daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 58 bin art\u0131\u015f olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,1\u2019den %0,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 tahmini 47 bin. Teknik seviyelerde diren\u00e7 86,00 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 86,50 ve 87,00 dolar; destek 83,50 dolar civar\u0131nda, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 82,00 dolar, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 78,50 dolar ve taban 74,00 dolar olarak belirtildi. Stokastik RSI 75\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken, ge\u00e7ersizle\u015fme g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 82,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 85,00 dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckselmesinin, fiili \u00fcretim kayb\u0131ndan ziyade ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k risklerine verilen bir tepki oldu\u011fu not edilmeli. ABD\u2019nin Larak Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki \u0130ran rampalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki misillemeler man\u015fetlere ta\u015f\u0131nsa da, fiziksel arz taraf\u0131nda tek bir varil dahi kay\u0131p s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. Odak, g\u00fcnl\u00fck gemi ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin hafta sonunda sadece be\u015fe geriledi\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki transit tehdidinde olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ak\u0131\u015fa arac\u0131l\u0131k ediyor; bu da k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. \u015eu a\u015famada K\u00f6rfez ihracat\u0131 15-16 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinde istikrar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor; bu da artan jeopolitik g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcye ra\u011fmen fiziksel ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut %2,5\u2019lik fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir arz \u015fokundan \u00e7ok ge\u00e7ici bir risk primi olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fetlere ta\u015f\u0131nan askeri s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerden ziyade ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n giderek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. ABD son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 kurulu\u015fu kara listeye ald\u0131; haftal\u0131k ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n devreye girmesi bekleniyor. Bu idari ad\u0131mlar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda reel arz\u0131 kademeli olarak s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve piyasan\u0131n d\u00fczenlemeleri sindirmesiyle olu\u015facak gecikmeli etki fiyatlamada f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ISM imalat ve hizmet verileriyle birlikte \u00f6nemli bir makro geri besleme kanal\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. Y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131, imalatta \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d beklentisini 72\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu da Jackson Hole sonras\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019a y\u00fckseltiyor. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz patikas\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir; bu da tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ve WTI\u2019\u0131n kontrols\u00fcz bir ralli s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131ran bir dinamik.<\/p>\n
WTI 83,50 dolardaki destek taban\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece taktik olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim korunabilir. Bu seviyenin korunmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 hedefler 86,00 ve 86,50 dolar; A\u011fustos\u2019taki inat\u00e7\u0131 87,00 dolar tavan\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda. Ancak s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes disiplinine ihtiya\u00e7 var; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 82,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda gelecek bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI 85 dolara %2,5 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: Arz \u015foku de\u011fil, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ge\u00e7i\u015f riski fiyatlan\u0131yor. \u00dcretim kayb\u0131 yok; gemi ge\u00e7i\u015fleri g\u00fcnde 5\u2019e indi. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, Fed faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, teknik diren\u00e7 86-87.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t