DJIA pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 53.250 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 300 puan geriledi. ABD\u2019nin Larak Adas\u0131\u2019nda iki \u0130ran roket rampas\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki \u00fcsler ile Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019ndeki varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesi risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bozdu. Ham petrol %2\u2019den fazla y\u00fckselerek 85,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, Hazine tahvili getirileri de yukar\u0131 hareket etti; bu da \u015fokun klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201dtan ziyade finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 olarak fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fte aksama riski enflasyon beklentilerini besledi; g\u00f6sterge K\u00f6rfez\u2013Japonya b\u00fcy\u00fck tanker navlun oran\u0131 27 A\u011fustos\u2019ta metrik ton ba\u015f\u0131na 107 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde rekor k\u0131rd\u0131. Bunun \u00fczerine Fed faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri yeniden fiyatland\u0131; eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 cuma \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 seviyesinden %60\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n %3,75 – %4,00\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131nabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Endeksin yap\u0131s\u0131 Dow\u2019u zay\u0131f korunakl\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131yor: ExxonMobil\u2019in 2020\u2019de \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131ndan bu yana Chevron tek enerji bile\u015feni ve fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekste yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,2 paya sahip. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k finansallar be\u015f hisseyle endeksin d\u00f6rtte birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; yaln\u0131zca Goldman Sachs yakla\u015f\u0131k %11,5 seviyesinde ve hisse fiyat\u0131 1.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Alphabet haziran sonu itibar\u0131yla Verizon\u2019\u0131n yerini ald\u0131; teknoloji rallisinin etkisi ise Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,4 ve Microsoft\u2019un yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,7 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klarla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Endeks be\u015finci ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k ayl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fi izlese de, a\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 54.750\u2019ye yak\u0131n rekorunun yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan veriler: Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 23 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 58 bin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,1; saatlik kazan\u00e7lar ayl\u0131k %0,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,1). ISM imalat \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d endeksinin 71,1\u2019den 72\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; hizmetler \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d en son 70,3 seviyesindeydi. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n 44 bine k\u0131yasla 47 bin gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; t\u00fcm bunlar 16 Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde izlenecek. Teknik seviyeler: 53.500 diren\u00e7, ard\u0131ndan 53.800\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczeri ve 54.000; 53.100 ve 53.000 civar\u0131 destek. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 52.700 yak\u0131n\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 50.000 civar\u0131nda. Stoch RSI 35\u2019e yak\u0131n; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 53.800 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde senaryo ge\u00e7ersiz say\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda devlet tahvili alma \u015feklindeki geleneksel \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d hamlesi bu kez \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu kriz bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hik\u00e2yesinden ziyade bir enflasyon hik\u00e2yesi. Ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez\u2013Japonya tanker navlunlar\u0131n\u0131n metrik ton ba\u015f\u0131na 107 dolarla rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131, do\u011frudan bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u015fokuna i\u015faret ediyor. Enerji maliyetleri ile tahvil getirileri birlikte y\u00fckselirken h\u0131zla uyum sa\u011flamak gerekiyor; bu kombinasyon hisse senetlerini olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden %60\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve hedef aral\u0131k olarak %3,75 – %4,00 band\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ani faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini tetikledi\u011finde\u2014Dow\u2019u bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken 2022 enflasyon \u015fokuna benzer \u015fekilde\u2014hisse modelleri bozuluyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n klasik bir politika \u201ckurtarma\u201ds\u0131 beklemek yerine, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 bir ortama haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nin bu jeopolitik anlat\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal olarak yanl\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131nda konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmek gerekiyor. Chevron yaln\u0131zca %2,2\u2019lik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla tek enerji korumas\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Goldman Sachs gibi faize duyarl\u0131 finansallar ve vade duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek teknoloji hisseleri endekse hakim. Bu dengesizlik, artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin etkisinin neredeyse hi\u00e7 enerji tamponu olmadan endekse yans\u0131mas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam verisinden ziyade sal\u0131 ve per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ISM \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d verilerine daha fazla odaklanmak gerekiyor. Enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yer genellikle bu alt endeksler oluyor ve 72 tahmininin \u00fczerinde bir okuma enflasyonun sertle\u015fti\u011fini teyit edecektir. Veriler s\u0131cak gelirse, Fed politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131na getirileri daha da yukar\u0131 itmek i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 t\u00fcm m\u00fchimmat\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Dow\u2019da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131; 53.000 seviyesinin ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 52.700 civar\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 35\u2019e do\u011fru gerilerken, 53.500 diren\u00e7 tavan\u0131 a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece momentum belirgin bi\u00e7imde sat\u0131c\u0131larda. Endeksin 53.800 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f almas\u0131 durumunda bu k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu terk ederiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik gerilim Wall Street\u2019i sarst\u0131: Dow 300 puan kay\u0131pla 53.250\u2019ye inerken petrol 85 dolar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, getiriler y\u00fckseldi. Fed\u2019de eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %60\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 53.000 kritik destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t