USD\/JPY Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,21 geriledi ve yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine psikolojik 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra 159,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Japon Yeni, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in Japonya h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir para birimine yol a\u00e7acak ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan talep g\u00f6rd\u00fc; paritenin son y\u00fckseli\u015fi, daha \u00f6nceki m\u00fcdahale b\u00f6lgelerine y\u00f6nelik oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131. 160,00 \u00fczeri hareketin ard\u0131ndan m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, yetkililerin 30 Temmuz-26 A\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde rekor 15,4 trilyon yen harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; bu harcama, 164,00 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvenin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Yen\u2019e destek, geni\u015fleyici maliye politikas\u0131, y\u00fcksek kamu borcu ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, BoJ\u2019un daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi beklentileriyle de ili\u015fkilendirildi. ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flarken, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos ISM \u0130malat PMI ve Temmuz JOLTS raporu dahil faiz beklentilerini \u015fekillendirebilecek veriler \u00f6ncesinde parite \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Bir saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 159,74\u2019te; 159,47\u2019deki 100 saatlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 159,17\u2019deki 200 saatlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde bulunurken, trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011fi 159,55 civar\u0131nda izleniyor. RSI 47,82 ile n\u00f6tr 50 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 159,92 ve 160,20 yak\u0131n\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY paritesi kritik 160,00 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011finin yak\u0131n\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Yeni destekleyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla birlikte, BoJ\u2019dan ani ve sert bir m\u00fcdahale gelmesi riski son derece y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, rekor nitelikte 15,4 trilyon yenin tek bir ayl\u0131k pencerede harcanmas\u0131 gibi Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri, paritenin bu kilit diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve kamu otoritesiyle dayat\u0131lan geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak sert bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kritik ABD verileri \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor; bu da her iki y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle gibi stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, 160,20 diren\u00e7 seviyesine \u00e7ok yak\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 knock-out bariyerleri belirlemekten ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z; zira ani piyasa s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 erken \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, parite \u015fu anda 159,47 ve 159,17\u2019deki kritik saatlik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, BoJ\u2019un devreye girmesi halinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sarmala kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in bu destek b\u00f6lgesinin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes emirleri yerle\u015ftirmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, fiyat\u0131n 160,20\u2019deki son k\u0131sa vadeli tepeyi a\u015fmakta ve \u00fczerinde kalmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 durumunda k\u0131sa pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 160 e\u015fi\u011fi yeniden man\u015fette: USD\/JPY 159,80\u2019e gerilerken, Bessent\u2019in \u201cdaha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yen\u201d mesaj\u0131 ve 15,4 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7mi\u015fi risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; BoJ beklentisi, ABD verileri volatiliteyi k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t