USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 Federal Rezerv (Fed) beklentilerine ve jeopolitik gerilime ra\u011fmen ivme kazanamamas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc hafif geriledi. Parite 0,8080 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, seans i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,41 seviyelerinde seyretti ve ge\u00e7en haftaki 99,72 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Dolar, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole\u2019daki \u015fahin (hawkish) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bir haftadan uzun s\u00fcrenin en iyi seviyesine y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; bu durum, enflasyonun Fed\u2019in %2 hedefine do\u011fru geri d\u00f6nmesinin zorla\u015fabilece\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar politika ad\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 gelecek ay faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k i\u015faret ediyor. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ISM PMI anketleri ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re Bankac\u0131lar Birli\u011fi anketi, ankete kat\u0131lan t\u00fcm bankac\u0131lar\u0131n SNB\u2019nin politika faizini 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini; yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019\u0131n\u0131n ise 2027 boyunca da de\u011fi\u015fiklik \u00f6ng\u00f6rmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130svi\u00e7re Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dcFE ve ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8080 civar\u0131nda, \u00e7eli\u015fen piyasa dinamikleri aras\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Jackson Hole\u2019da Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelen \u015fahin sinyaller daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Dolar\u0131 desteklerken, y\u00fckselen ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, jeopolitik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla USD\/CHF\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadeli jeopolitik g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6tesine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 orta vadede ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel zemin olu\u015fturuyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n eyl\u00fclde ABD faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi ve \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de bankac\u0131lar\u0131n SNB\u2019nin 2026 boyunca faizi %0\u2019da tutmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesiyle, parite i\u00e7in temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif kal\u0131yor. USD\/CHF\u2019de olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in ekim vadeli \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejisinin olduk\u00e7a etkin bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu haftaki ekonomik takvim, ABD ISM PMI ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporuyla ba\u015flayarak kritik kataliz\u00f6rler sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri, Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) ge\u00e7en haftaki 99,72 zirvesi gibi son d\u00f6nem y\u00fckseklerine yeniden ta\u015f\u0131yabildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak istihdam verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz; olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz, eyl\u00fclde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirerek mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimde sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda da bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar, T\u00dcFE ve 2\u00c7 GSYH verilerini izlemek gerekiyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun so\u011fumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, SNB\u2019nin politika faizini 2027\u2019ye kadar %0\u2019da tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini do\u011frulayacakt\u0131r. Bu olas\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc GSYH a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/CHF call opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF 0,8080\u2019de, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu ve \u0130ran gerilimine ra\u011fmen zay\u0131f: DXY geri \u00e7ekildi. FedWatch eyl\u00fclde %65 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, SNB %0\u2019da. NFP\/PMI ile hareket. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t