Kanada dolar\u0131 genel olarak yatay seyrederken, USD\/CAD Scotiabank\u2019\u0131n tahmin etti\u011fi 1,3920 seviyesindeki temel denge (fundamental equilibrium) d\u00fczeyi civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. S\u00f6z konusu tahmin, Scotiabank\u2019\u0131n daha geni\u015fleyen k\u0131sa vadeli ABD\/Kanada swap spreadlerine ba\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden bu yana s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 revize edildi. Banka, dalgal\u0131 Fed beklentileri ve yeniden artan ticaret belirsizli\u011fine ra\u011fmen Kanada dolar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fleri k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Odak, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve politika duru\u015funun de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) karar\u0131na; ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verisine kay\u0131yor. \u0130stihdam\u0131n Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 15 bin ki\u015fi y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Grafik taraf\u0131nda Scotiabank teknik sinyalleri \u201ckarma\u201d olarak nitelendirdi; 1,41 b\u00f6lgesinden gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos ay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kanal\u0131n\u0131n (bear channel) \u00fczerine yeniden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi. Diren\u00e7 1,3980\/00 band\u0131na konulurken, destek seviyeleri 1,3845 ile 1,3820\/25 olarak g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerindeki kaymalara ra\u011fmen 1,3920\u2019deki \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201dine yak\u0131n seviyelerde yatay kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, ABD ile Kanada aras\u0131ndaki iki y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puanla geni\u015f kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen dikkat \u00e7ekici; s\u00f6z konusu fark, Kanada dolar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli potansiyelini belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan BoC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevcut duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ayn\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Buna ek olarak, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada istihdam raporunun 15 bin ki\u015filik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana izlenen istikrarl\u0131 fakat yava\u015f istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla uyumlu. Bu g\u00f6rece \u201csakin\u201d veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu bant hareketi (rangebound) beklentisi alt\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n iron condor veya short strangle gibi prim toplama (premium-collection) stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,3820\u2019deki kilit destek ile 1,4000 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin hemen d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilen opsiyon sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeden (time decay) faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler. Tarihsel veriler, parite temel denge seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011finde \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilitenin (implied volatility) \u00e7o\u011fu zaman pahal\u0131 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131na istatistiksel bir avantaj sunabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle 1,3980 direncinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesiyle riskin s\u0131k\u0131 y\u00f6netilmesi gerekiyor; ani piyasa \u015foklar\u0131 bu b\u00f6lgede ge\u00e7ici yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebilir. ABD dolar\u0131nda 1,3980\u2019e do\u011fru bir d\u00fczeltme ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde, bu seviyede yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131p h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde ortalamaya (mean) geri d\u00f6nmesi olas\u0131. Pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in 1,4020 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerine koruyucu al\u0131\u015f-stoplar\u0131 (buy-stops) yerle\u015ftirilmesi uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD, Scotiabank\u2019\u0131n 1,3920 \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201di \u00e7evresinde yatay: Fed ve ticaret belirsizli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131n CAD diren\u00e7li, ancak geni\u015f swap\/faiz fark\u0131 ralliyi t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. BoC ve istihdam verisi kritik; 1,3980 diren\u00e7, 1,3820 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t