ABD dolar\u0131, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u00fcn Jackson Hole\u2019da \u015fahin tondaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yatay seyretti. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, bu haftan\u0131n sonunda ve gelecek haftan\u0131n sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporlar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. \u0130spanya, Fransa ve Almanya\u2019dan gelen erken T\u00dcFE verileri ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini peki\u015ftirirken, ortak m\u00fcdahale ve Japonya\u2019dan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de BOJ ad\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini masada tutuyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 dolar y\u00fckseltti. \u00d6te yandan ABD Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Stratejik Sermaye Ofisi, Kuzey Amerika merkezli Blue Energy Partners\u2019ta yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 pasif pay almak i\u00e7in bir \u201cpenny-warrant\u201d yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve ayr\u0131ca raporlanan 65 milyon varillik rezervlere ba\u011fl\u0131 maliyet \u00fczerinden Venezuela \u00fcretiminin %20\u2019sini sat\u0131n alma hakk\u0131n\u0131 ana hatlar\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
FX taraf\u0131nda euro, vadesi dolan yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,2 milyar euroluk 1,1600 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonun etkisiyle 1,1605-1,1610 dolar band\u0131n\u0131 yoklad\u0131; USD\/JPY k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; JPY159,65\u2019te 780 milyon dolarl\u0131k vade bulunuyordu. Sterlin 1,3530-1,3555 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken USD\/CAD 1,3910 Kanada dolar\u0131 seviyesini test etti. AUD, 0,7200 dolar \u00fczerinden geriledikten sonra 0,7155-0,7170 dolar band\u0131nda tutundu; USD\/MXN 17,0645\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve PBOC\u2019nin 6,7811\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 6,7828 belirlemesiyle CNH 6,7320\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Faizlerde ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar %4,71 civar\u0131nda, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131klar %5,21 civar\u0131nda seyrederken; alt\u0131n 4.700 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndan ~4.445 dolara geriledi ve WTI 86,65 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Enflasyon ve aktivite verileri aras\u0131nda \u0130spanya T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin ayl\u0131k %0,8 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6, Fransa T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin %2,7\u2019ye (\u00f6nceki %2,4) y\u00fckselmesi, Avustralya enflasyon g\u00f6stergesinin %4,8\u2019e (\u00f6nceki %4,0) \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla kredilerin %0,6 artmas\u0131, Japonya\u2019da temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki ayki -%3,9\u2019un ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k +%2,4 gelmesi, haziranda hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k -%3,3 olmas\u0131 ve \u00c7in PMI\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n 49,8; 49,0 ve 49,5 seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jackson Hole\u2019dan gelen Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u00fcn \u015fahin sinyali sindirilirken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n USD paritelerinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Her ne kadar vadeli faiz kontratlar\u0131 eyl\u00fclde bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olsa da, Fed\u2019in tarihsel davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015fan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verilerinde net bir uzla\u015f\u0131 olu\u015fmadan nadiren ad\u0131m att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrederken, olas\u0131 bir \u201cpas\u201d senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejileriyle korunma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler WTI ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 3 dolar yukar\u0131 iterek k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendirme riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Venezuela petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00f6zsermaye hamlesinin, 65 milyon varillik rezerv hedefini maliyet baz\u0131nda g\u00f6zetmesi takip edilmeli. Venezuela\u2019n\u0131n 300 milyar varilin \u00fczerinde kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f rezervle d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol rezervlerine sahip oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu stratejik ad\u0131m uzun vadeli enerji t\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 temelden etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nerken euroda negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc koruyor, teknik olarak 1,1530 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefliyoruz. \u0130spanya ve Fransa\u2019da y\u00fckselen enflasyon ECB\u2019yi eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na iterken, bug\u00fcn 1,1600 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek hacimli opsiyon vadeleri spotu ge\u00e7ici olarak bu seviyeye \u201c\u00e7iviliyor\u201d. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015flerde euro k\u0131sa pozisyonu kurmas\u0131, 1,1610 direncini s\u0131k\u0131 bir zarar-kes (stop-loss) olarak kullanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yenin 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine kaymas\u0131, Japon otoritelerinden yeni bir do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale turu riskine kar\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 alarm durumuna ge\u00e7irdi. 2024\u2019te benzer de\u011fer kayb\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, tam da bu psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fi savunmak i\u00e7in rekor 62 milyar dolar kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de BOJ\u2019un s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131 halinde sert yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli yen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kanada ve Avustralya dolar\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019de t\u0131rmanan ticaret gerilimleri USMCA \u00e7er\u00e7evesini tehdit ederken. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 1,4000 CAD seviyesine do\u011fru itmi\u015f; buras\u0131 kritik bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Avustralya dolar\u0131nda ise i\u00e7 momentum g\u00f6stergeleri belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flarken 0,7100 dolar seviyesini hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.700 dolar civar\u0131ndan reddedilmesi sonras\u0131 k\u0131ymetli madenlerde daha derin bir d\u00fczeltme bekliyoruz. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de 70 dolar \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ramay\u0131p a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f formasyonu \u00fcretmesiyle momentum sat\u0131c\u0131lardan yana. K\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmesi, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131rken; 4.300 dolar hedefiyle alt\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n kademeli olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar Jackson Hole sonras\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u00fcn \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 sindiriyor: Dolar yatay, g\u00f6z NFP\u2019de. ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131rken yen 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131, alt\u0131n sert d\u00fczeltmede. Venezuela hamlesi izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t