Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n Jackson Hole sempozyumundaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, uzun vadede benzer bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclmeksizin k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde sert bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikledi. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi 11 bp art\u0131\u015fla %4,34\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rayarak marttan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini kaydederken, piyasa eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha \u00f6nceki %31\u2019den %61\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; bu da konu\u015fma \u00f6ncesi fiyatlamaya g\u00f6re %25\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,7 civar\u0131nda, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,2 civar\u0131nda ve mortgage faizleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,7 seviyesindeyken Warsh, finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; bu da hareketin mali g\u00fcvenilirlik kaynakl\u0131 bir olaydan ziyade para politikas\u0131 odakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Hisselerde tepki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131: Dow 9 puan geriledi, S&P 500 20 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 7.711\u2019e indi, Nasdaq 140 puan kaybetti ve Russell 42 puan (yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,4) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; \u201cMag 7\u201d ise 210 puan y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Getiriler y\u00fckselip dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken alt\u0131n sert sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc; %3\u2019ten fazla\u2014yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 dolar\u2014gerileyerek 4.630 civar\u0131ndan 4.455\u2019e indi, ard\u0131ndan 4.530\u2019un k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla gece i\u015flemlerinde 4.396\u2019ya do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 4.370 seviyesi destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken, a\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131ndaki diplerden gelen %14\u2019l\u00fck rallinin ard\u0131ndan 4.200 olas\u0131 bir \u201creset\u201d seviyesi olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Petrol, haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 83 dolar civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7irirken, ABD\u2019nin Larak Adas\u0131\u2019nda iki \u0130ran roket rampas\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki iki ABD hava \u00fcss\u00fcne f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesinin ard\u0131ndan %3,4 y\u00fckselerek 86,30 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD\u2013Venezuela anla\u015fmas\u0131nda 65 milyar varile at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131rken, 17 sahadan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varillik ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 hedefi belirtildi. ABD vadeli i\u015flemleri eksideydi (Dow -135, S&P -25, Nasdaq -33, Russell -8) ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 bp geriledi; g\u00fcndemde S&P Global PMI\u2019lar, ISM Prices Paid ve New Orders, JOLTS, ADP ve NFP verilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra PANW ve Dell (Sal\u0131), Broadcom ile Snowflake ve HPE (\u00c7ar\u015famba) ve Zscaler ile Ciena (Per\u015fembe) bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Jackson Hole\u2019dan gelen son \u015fahin tonun t\u00fcrev piyasalarca sindirildi\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli hareket etmek gerekiyor. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizinin %4,34\u2019e y\u00fckselerek eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in %61 z\u0131mni faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesine ra\u011fmen, getiri e\u011frisinin uzun taraf\u0131 g\u00f6rece stabil kald\u0131. Bu agresif para politikas\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak eyl\u00fcl, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in takvim baz\u0131nda en zay\u0131f ayd\u0131r; S&P 500 1928\u2019den bu yana ortalama %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sergilemi\u015ftir. Endeksin 7.711 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ve kritik deste\u011fin 7.650\u2019de bulundu\u011fu ortamda, endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda put spread gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma stratejilerinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisselere dayal\u0131 t\u00fcrevler, \u00f6zellikle Russell 2000 putlar\u0131, \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip; zira daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u015firketler, k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerindeki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara \u00e7ok daha hassas.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.455 dolara uzanan son %3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, metal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir teknik test niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor; fiyat, 4.370\u2019teki trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011finin hemen \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n bo\u011fa piyasalar\u0131nda, ani s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma korkular\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine devam etmeden \u00f6nce %5 ila %10 aras\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeler g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. 4.200\u2019deki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek seviyesine yak\u0131n out-of-the-money put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya 4.370 seviyesinin yakla\u015fan veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 boyunca sa\u011flam kalmas\u0131 halinde call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler, ham petrol\u00fc h\u0131zla 86,30 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yarak enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kolayca bozabilecek yeni bir risk primi ekledi. Venezuela petrol anla\u015fmas\u0131 gibi uzun vadeli arz anla\u015fmalar\u0131 stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli olsa da, fiziksel arz \u00fczerinde etkilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi y\u0131llar alacakt\u0131r. Yak\u0131n vadede, askeri s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerin enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikte tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle ani oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 WTI ham petrol\u00fcnde uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ISM \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi dahil bu haftaki yo\u011fun veri takvimi, piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 endi\u015felerini ya do\u011frulayacak ya da erken oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterecek. Bu raporlar a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken hisse ve sabit getirili opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi beklenmeli. Makro verilerin tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n son tepkisini hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p \u00e7\u0131karmayaca\u011f\u0131 netle\u015fene kadar \u00e7evik kalmak ve pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini muhafazak\u00e2r tutmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jackson Hole\u2019da Warsh \u015fahinle\u015fti, k\u0131sa vadeli faizler sert yeniden fiyatland\u0131: 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,34\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %61\u2019e f\u0131rlad\u0131. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken alt\u0131n %3 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc; petrol jeopolitikle s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t