Alt\u0131n, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131f bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Asya saatlerinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 4.400 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak 19 A\u011fustos\u2019tan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi test ettikten sonra dengelendi. XAU\/USD, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda ge\u00e7en hafta 4.697 dolarla zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra 4.436 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; ancak piyasalar\u0131n Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funa y\u00f6nelmesiyle ivme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Jackson Hole Sempozyumu\u2019ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, alt\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,20 geriledi; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6rt\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %61\u2019e y\u00fckseltti (\u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %38). ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,72\u2019den 99,58\u2019e gerilerken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun vadeli tahvillerde likiditeyi destekleyici geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma plan\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 art\u0131da seyretti. Di\u011fer tarafta, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla West Texas Intermediate (WTI) petrol yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85,60 dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.529 dolar\u0131n yeniden alt\u0131na indi; RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 55\u2019e so\u011furken MACD sinyal \u00e7izgisinin hafif alt\u0131na kayd\u0131. Destek, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.370 dolar ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.211 dolarda; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 4.000 dolar seviyesi bulunuyor. Diren\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda 4.529 dolar ve 4.700 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekleyerek y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor al\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019den gelen \u015fahin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiminin piyasaya sindirildi\u011fi bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n vadeliler ve opsiyonlarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Alt\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (SMA) 4.529 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.370 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefleyerek k\u0131sa pozisyonlara \u00f6ncelik verilmesini veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel piyasa verileri, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselen faiz beklentileriyle bu kritik uzun vadeli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda, takip eden haftalarda s\u0131kl\u0131kla ilave %3 ila %5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimindeki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f ve WTI petrol\u00fcn 85,60 dolar civar\u0131ndaki seyri ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskleri yaratabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, portf\u00f6yleri sert ters hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korumak gerekiyor. Bu y\u00fcksek belirsizlik ortam\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) hem call hem de put alarak uzun strangle opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu kurgu, jeopolitik endi\u015feler ile \u015fahin faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadaki \u00e7eki\u015fmesinde hangi taraf\u0131n bask\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015fan ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) ve ISM PMI verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 mevcut %61 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin mevcut %4,75 seviyesinin \u00fczerini g\u00f6rerek psikolojik %5,0 e\u015fi\u011fine y\u00f6nelmesi halinde, alt\u0131nda yo\u011fun bir likidasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemeldir. Bu y\u00fcksek etkili veri ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ters tarafta yakalanmamak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcm spot ve vadeli pozisyonlarda zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: XAU\/USD 4.400 alt\u0131n\u0131 test edip 4.436\u2019da dengelendi. Fed\u2019in \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 bask\u0131 kuruyor; destek 4.370\/4.211. Jeopolitik risklerle opsiyonda strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t