{"id":53451,"date":"2026-08-31T13:27:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T13:27:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/warsh-jackson-holeda-sahin-donus-piyasalar-abd-veri-yagmuruna-hazirlanirken-eylulde-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltti\/"},"modified":"2026-08-31T13:27:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T13:27:37","slug":"warsh-jackson-holeda-sahin-donus-piyasalar-abd-veri-yagmuruna-hazirlanirken-eylulde-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/warsh-jackson-holeda-sahin-donus-piyasalar-abd-veri-yagmuruna-hazirlanirken-eylulde-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-yukseltti\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsh: Jackson Hole\u2019da \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, piyasalar ABD veri ya\u011fmuruna haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti"},"content":{"rendered":"

Son ABD enflasyon verileri, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin genel olarak beklentilere paralel gelmesiyle birlikte daha geni\u015f makro arka plan\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Ancak Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Jackson Hole\u2019da \u015fahin tondaki konu\u015fmas\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te bir seviyesinden %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; y\u0131l sonuna kadar ise k\u00fcm\u00fclatif olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131. Getiri e\u011frisi yatayla\u015ft\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n

Dikkat \u015fimdi daha yo\u011fun bir ABD veri takvimine \u00e7evriliyor: sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc JOLTS ile ba\u015flayacak s\u00fcre\u00e7te, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM \u0130malat ve per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM Hizmetler verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; her ikisinin de b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Haftan\u0131n odak noktas\u0131 ise cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu; piyasa beklentisi, ge\u00e7en ayki -23.000\u2019lik okumadan sonra 58.000\u2019e toparlanma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bir ba\u015fka zay\u0131f veri, faiz ve FX taraf\u0131nda Jackson Hole sonras\u0131 \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlaman\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri sarabilir; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ise enflasyonun bask\u0131n g\u00fcndem olmaya devam etti\u011fi beklentilerini peki\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n

\u015eahin Fed Sinyalleri Ortam\u0131nda T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

ABD ekonomik verilerinin kritik bir haftas\u0131na girerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un Jackson Hole\u2019daki \u015fahin tonu sonras\u0131, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasada %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu ani de\u011fi\u015fim getiri e\u011frisini yatayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken ABD dolar\u0131na da yeniden ivme kazand\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu momentumdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle Euro ve Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri bir hafta i\u00e7inde %15\u2019ten fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) izleyen iki haftada ortalama %1,2 y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD call almak, s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk \u00fcstlenmeden ilave \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlerden kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 \u015fekilde yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Yakla\u015fan Ekonomik Veriler ve Piyasa Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Bu haftaki JOLTS ve ISM anketleri, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ilk ger\u00e7ek testi sunacak. ISM Hizmetler endeksi 50 puan e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde, b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde rahat kal\u0131rsa, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecektir. Bu veriler \u00f6ncesinde ABD Hazine tahvili getiri e\u011frisinde ilave yatayla\u015fmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Nihai belirleyici cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam olacak; konsens\u00fcs, ge\u00e7en ayki -23.000\u2019lik negatif verinin ard\u0131ndan 58.000 istihdama toparlanma bekliyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa tepkileri, 30.000\u2019in alt\u0131nda bir sapman\u0131n genellikle \u015fahin pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikledi\u011fini ve Hazine tahvili getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, her iki y\u00f6nde keskin bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde straddle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019den \u015fahin r\u00fczg\u00e2r: Warsh sonras\u0131 eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, e\u011fri yatayla\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6zler JOLTS-ISM ve cuma NFP\u2019de; opsiyon\/straddle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t